Commerzbank\u2019tan Volkmar Baur, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) 2026\u2019da iki kez daha faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bunun para politikas\u0131n\u0131 \u201cn\u00f6tr faiz\u201de (ekonomiyi ne h\u0131zland\u0131ran ne yava\u015flatan denge faiz) yakla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda yenin ABD dolar\u0131 ve euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut politika faizinin %0,75 oldu\u011funu, bunun da n\u00f6tr faiz i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahminin bile alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 destekleyici oldu\u011funu ve politika faizinin hen\u00fcz n\u00f6tr seviyeye ula\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyor. Bu nedenle iki ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca USD\/JPY ve EUR\/JPY\u2019nin mevcut seviyelerden 2026 sonu ve 2027\u2019ye do\u011fru kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bunu, ABD ve Avrupa\u2019da faiz beklentilerinin \u201cfiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131\u201dna (piyasalar\u0131n beklenen faiz indirimlerini daha az olas\u0131 g\u00f6rerek fiyatlardan geri \u00e7ekmesi) ba\u011fl\u0131yor; bunun y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda yenin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyece\u011fini savunuyor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut politika faizi %0,75 iken Japonya\u2019daki finansal ko\u015fullar b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemeye devam ediyor. Mart 2026 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu %2,4 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken BoJ\u2019nin \u201cs\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne\u201d (enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daraltma s\u00fcreci) devam etme bask\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor. Bu da BoJ\u2019nin bu y\u0131l iki kez daha faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Politika faizinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 n\u00f6tr seviyeye ula\u015fmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi hedeflenenden fazla destekledi\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n gev\u015fek kalmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret eden unsurlar, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ek ad\u0131mlar atmas\u0131n\u0131 hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karabilir. Bu nedenle BoJ\u2019nin y\u0131l bitmeden yeniden harekete ge\u00e7erek fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo ABD ile belirgin \u015fekilde farkl\u0131. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faizi %4,0\u2019a indirdi ve \u201ct\u00fcrev\u201d piyasalar (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa\/faize ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnler) y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az iki faiz indirimi daha fiyatl\u0131yor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) da b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flarken daha gev\u015fek politikaya e\u011filim sinyali veriyor. Japonya ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki artan politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylar\u0131n ana temas\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u201cT\u00fcrev\u201d i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yene g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Japon yeni \u201cal\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 veya USD\/JPY paritesinde \u201csat\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu t\u00fcr pozisyonlar, ABD ve Avrupa\u2019da faiz indirimi beklentileri zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a (fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131k\u00e7a) de\u011fer kazanabilir.<\/p>\n
2025 boyunca g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek politikadan kademeli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz farklar\u0131 daralmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u201ccarry trade\u201dlerin (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli varl\u0131klara yat\u0131r\u0131m) \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi, para biriminde h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazan\u00e7lar\u0131na yol a\u00e7abiliyor. Mevcut ortam da yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemlere benzer \u00f6zellikler g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 148,50 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi ortamda, 2026 sonuna do\u011fru 140\u2019lar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00f6lgesine hareketi hedefleyen opsiyon stratejileri cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir. Zamanlama olarak hem BoJ\u2019nin olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 hem de yabanc\u0131 merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 faiz indirimleriyle uyum i\u00e7in vadesi d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe uzanan yap\u0131lar (belirli vade ve ko\u015fullara sahip opsiyon kombinasyonlar\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu, politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na tam yans\u0131mas\u0131 i\u00e7in zaman tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar dikkat: Commerzbank\u2019a g\u00f6re BoJ 2026\u2019da iki ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla n\u00f6tr faize yakla\u015facak. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon %2,4 bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken yen, dolar\/euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ikinci yar\u0131da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44363","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44363","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44363"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44363\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44363"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44363"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44363"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}