Wells Fargo\u2019nun uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi ekibi, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki ate\u015fkesin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu; bunun petrol piyasas\u0131nda riskleri y\u00fcksek tuttu\u011funu ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm konusunda g\u00fcveni zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Ekip, s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n (fiilen devam eden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n) 2026 ortas\u0131na kadar sona erece\u011fini varsay\u0131yor ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na (H2 2026: y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci alt\u0131 ay\u0131) do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine girece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Raporda arz (piyasaya sunulan miktar) taraf\u0131ndaki risklerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc uyar\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131yor; olas\u0131 kesintiler \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck ve k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fen bir arz \u015foku\u201d (arz\u0131n h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle fiyat\u0131 yukar\u0131 iten etki) olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. IEA\u2019n\u0131n (Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131) tahminine g\u00f6re olas\u0131 \u00fcretim duru\u015flar\u0131 (shut-in: g\u00fcvenlik veya lojistik nedeniyle \u00fcretimin ge\u00e7ici olarak kapat\u0131lmas\u0131) g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 milyon varile (mbpd: milyon varil\/g\u00fcn) yakla\u015fabilir; bu, k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %10\u2019una denk geliyor ve ko\u015fullar\u0131n nisan boyunca daha da bozulabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re ate\u015fkes, ko\u015fullar\u0131n h\u0131zla normale d\u00f6nece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f olmazsa, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan (Strait of Hormuz) sevkiyat\u0131n ve enerji \u00fcretiminin yava\u015f toparlanmas\u0131, hatta hi\u00e7 toparlanmamas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klanan ate\u015fkes k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu da Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kesinti riskini petrol piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek tutuyor. S\u00fcregelen jeopolitik bask\u0131 (siyasi gerilimlerin piyasalara etkisi) nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylara ili\u015fkin fiyat g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde inan\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu belirsizli\u011fin kendisi bile yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n (trader: k\u0131sa vadeli al-sat yapan piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131) dikkate almas\u0131 gereken bir unsur.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, b\u00fcy\u00fck ve k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fen bir arz \u015foku ihtimaliyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. IEA\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 \u00fcretim duru\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 10 milyon varile yak\u0131n tahmin etmesi, piyasay\u0131 sert bir yukar\u0131 harekete a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rak\u0131yor. EIA\u2019n\u0131n (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) son verilerinde ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta 2,5 milyon varil azalmas\u0131 da, sistemde \u015fu anda ne kadar az tampon (beklenmedik kesintilere kar\u015f\u0131 stok\/esneklik) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve s\u0131k dalgalanmas\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ate\u015fkes bozulursa olas\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in Brent ve WTI gibi referans (benchmark: kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc) petrollerde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Opsiyon s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerindeki mevcut z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n %10\u2019unun kesintiye u\u011frama riskini tam yans\u0131tm\u0131yor olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkesin normalle\u015fme olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmamak gerekir. 2022\u2019deki piyasa sars\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, tedarik zincirlerinin (\u00fcretimden teslimata uzanan lojistik a\u011f) uyum sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131n zaman ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ilk \u015foktan sonra fiyatlar\u0131n aylarca y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan sevkiyat\u0131n veya b\u00f6lgesel enerji \u00fcretiminin toparlanmas\u0131 yava\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131ndan, fiyatlar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde kritik e\u015fik: Wells Fargo, Orta Do\u011fu ate\u015fkesinin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla arz \u015foku riskinin y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyor. 10 mb\/g\u00fcn kesinti fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ratabilir; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi H2 2026\u2019ya erteleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44362","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44362","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44362"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44362\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44362"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44362"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44362"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}