Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi nisan ay\u0131nda 47,6\u2019ya geriledi. Beklenti 52 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Veri, tahminlerin alt\u0131nda kalan daha zay\u0131f bir t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenine i\u015faret ediyor. Endeks, daha y\u00fcksek de\u011ferlerin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00fcveni g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi bir \u00f6l\u00e7ekte hesaplan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131 i\u00e7in Michigan T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019nin beklenmedik \u015fekilde 47,6 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede gelmesi, ekonomide zay\u0131flama sinyali veriyor. 52 beklentisinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, t\u00fcketicilerin g\u00fcven kaybetti\u011fini; bunun da harcama i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda geni\u015f piyasaya kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor: SPY ve QQQ ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefleyen opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu zay\u0131f g\u00fcven tek ba\u015f\u0131na de\u011fil. Haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 230 binin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak bu y\u0131l ilk kez bu e\u015fi\u011fi a\u015ft\u0131; mart perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da %0,5 daralma g\u00f6sterdi. Piyasan\u0131n \u201ckorku g\u00f6stergesi\u201d olarak bilinen VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 ima eden oynakl\u0131k endeksi) bu haberlerle %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 19 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyenler, olas\u0131 daha sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) amac\u0131yla may\u0131s vadeli VIX call opsiyonu (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyen opsiyon) tercih edebilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2023\u2019te g\u00fcvenin 50\u201360 band\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nem b\u00fcy\u00fck tutarl\u0131 harcamalarda yava\u015flama ve konut piyasas\u0131nda geri \u00e7ekilmeyle devam etmi\u015fti. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye, piyasalar\u0131n hen\u00fcz tam fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha belirgin bir ekonomik daralma riskine i\u015faret edebilir. Bu da ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin zorlu ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenindeki bu sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc dikkate almas\u0131 beklenir; bu nedenle ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azal\u0131r. Piyasada \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek bitmeden faiz indirimi ihtimali artm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu beklentiyle tahvil faizlerinin d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi (getirilerin gerileyebilece\u011fi) senaryoda, 2 ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden yararlanma) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasas\u0131nda bu ortam, d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6rlerden (ekonomi b\u00fcy\u00fcrken g\u00fc\u00e7lenen) daha defansif sekt\u00f6rlere (durgunlukta daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131) kay\u0131\u015f\u0131 destekler. Zorunlu olmayan t\u00fcketim hisselerinde (seyahat, l\u00fcks perakende gibi) XLY ETF \u00fczerinden put opsiyonlar\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, temel t\u00fcketim (XLP) ve kamu hizmetleri\/elektrik-su gibi (XLU) ETF\u2019leri, ekonomik yava\u015flamalarda g\u00f6rece daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterebildi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n
Daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d bir Fed (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha az istekli, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemeye yak\u0131n) ve yava\u015flayan ABD ekonomisi genelde dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklenti artar. Ayn\u0131 zamanda sanayi emtialar\u0131na talebin d\u00fc\u015fmesi riskiyle, ham petrol ve bak\u0131r gibi k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye hassas vadeli kontratlarda k\u0131sa pozisyonlar (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden yararlanma) g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz \u015fok: Michigan T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni 47,6\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015ferek 52 beklentisini ezdi. Zay\u0131f g\u00fcven; SPY\/QQQ put, VIX call ve tahvil long\u2019u \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, defansif sekt\u00f6rlere rotasyon, DXY zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve petrol\/bak\u0131rda short sinyali veriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44357","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44357","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44357"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44357\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44357"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44357"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44357"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}