{"id":44353,"date":"2026-04-10T19:24:12","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T19:24:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/hassett-hurmuz-bogazi-yeniden-acildiginda-enerji-fiyatlarinin-hizla-dusecegini-soyledi-faiz-indirimi-alani-guclu-gorunuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-10T19:24:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T19:24:12","slug":"hassett-hurmuz-bogazi-yeniden-acildiginda-enerji-fiyatlarinin-hizla-dusecegini-soyledi-faiz-indirimi-alani-guclu-gorunuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/hassett-hurmuz-bogazi-yeniden-acildiginda-enerji-fiyatlarinin-hizla-dusecegini-soyledi-faiz-indirimi-alani-guclu-gorunuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Hassett, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; faiz indirimi alan\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kevin Hassett, Ulusal Ekonomi Konseyi Ba\u015fkan\u0131, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc FOX Business\u2019a yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimine alan bulundu\u011funa dair g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bu g\u00fcvenini k\u0131smen, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itmesi) hafifleyece\u011fi beklentisine ba\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n iki ay i\u00e7inde yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fini savundu. Yeniden a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in yedek planlar bulundu\u011funu, normal ak\u0131\u015flar yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 gerilemesi gerekti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n

2025 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 Kesintisinden Dersler<\/h3>\n

Ancak 2025\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yetkililer benzer \u015fekilde bo\u011faz\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k iki ay i\u00e7inde a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti; fiili takvim ise d\u00f6rde yak\u0131n aya uzad\u0131. Bu \u201cbeklenti\u2013ger\u00e7ek\u201d fark\u0131 ham petrolde sert oynakl\u0131\u011fa (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131) yol a\u00e7t\u0131. \u0130lk iyimserlik, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n hemen d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnerek erken pozisyon alan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 zor durumda b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n

2025\u2019te kapanma zirvesinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda olan WTI ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (gelecekte teslimat i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden yap\u0131lan standart al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 120 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc, ard\u0131ndan y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru 70 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine geriledi. Bu hareket 2021\u2019deki S\u00fcvey\u015f Kanal\u0131 olay\u0131n\u0131 and\u0131rd\u0131, ancak daha sert \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Ham petrolde oynakl\u0131k da s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131: CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) (petrol piyasas\u0131nda beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) bu d\u00f6nemde %40\u2019tan fazla y\u00fckseldi. Bu ortamda, tek y\u00f6nde pozisyon almak yerine straddle veya strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede, farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanma stratejileri) alan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar avantaj sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Piyasan\u0131n \u201cenerji d\u00fc\u015ferse Fed faiz indirir\u201d tezi y\u00f6n olarak do\u011fruydu, ancak zamanlama yanl\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130lk fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 Fed\u2019in ad\u0131m atmas\u0131n\u0131 geciktirdi; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar, bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlara ger\u00e7ekten yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 enflasyon verilerinde g\u00f6rmeyi bekledi.<\/p>\n

Dar Bo\u011faz Riskine ve Politika Gecikmesine G\u00f6re Pozisyon Alma<\/h3>\n

Gerilimin di\u011fer kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktalar\u0131nda da artmas\u0131yla, deniz yollar\u0131 tehdit edilirse benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 olas\u0131: \u00f6nce belirsizlikle y\u00fckseli\u015f, ard\u0131ndan lojistik normale d\u00f6n\u00fcnce rahatlamayla sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Bu senaryoda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ilk \u015fok y\u00fckseli\u015fini yakalamak i\u00e7in enerji hisseleri ve ham petrolde uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) bakabilir; durum \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde daha sonra gelebilecek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanmak i\u00e7in daha k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) pozisyon alabilir.<\/p>\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca, faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyeden uzak sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmay\u0131 (out-of-the-money put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131: fiyat o seviyeye gelmezse prim gelirine dayal\u0131 i\u015flem) de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu, ge\u00e7ici bir enerji \u015foku k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyonu y\u00fckseltirse Fed\u2019in h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz indiriminde isteksiz davranabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131t\u0131r. CME FedWatch (vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlar\u0131ndan piyasan\u0131n Fed beklentisini g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) \u015fu anda a\u011fustosa kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor; 2025\u2019teki zamanlama dersi tekrarlan\u0131rsa bu beklenti fazla iyimser kalabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed\u2019e faiz indirimi kap\u0131s\u0131 aralan\u0131yor mu? Hassett, enerji enflasyonunun s\u00f6nmesi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn iki ayda a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla petrol\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini savundu; 2025\u2019teki gecikme, oynakl\u0131k ve Fed zamanlama riskini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44353","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44353"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44353\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44353"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44353"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44353"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}