EUR\/USD, jeopolitik endi\u015felerin azalmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 son y\u00fckseli\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan 1,17 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131na ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,1 art\u0131da girdi.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda \u201crisk reversal\u201d (al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu prim fark\u0131; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n kurun hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011fine dair e\u011filimini g\u00f6sterir) g\u00f6stergeleri iyile\u015fti. Bu, euronun zay\u0131flamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma talebinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, hareketin yeniden \u201ctemel dinamiklere\u201d (faiz fark\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon gibi makro etkenler) d\u00f6nmesine alan a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Faiz getirisi farklar\u0131 (\u00f6rne\u011fin ABD ve Almanya tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) yak\u0131n vadede euroyu destekleyici g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durum EUR\/USD i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli teknik sinyaller olumlu; RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en teknik g\u00f6sterge) 50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde. Mart ortas\u0131nda RSI 20\u2019ye yak\u0131n seviyelere kadar gerilemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
1,18 seviyesine kadar diren\u00e7 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 1,18, \u015fubat\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda fiyat\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgeydi. Yak\u0131n vadede beklenen i\u015flem band\u0131 1,1680\u20131,1780.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte euroyu destekledi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen faiz farklar\u0131 art\u0131k ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili ile Almanya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bund (Alman devlet tahvili) aras\u0131ndaki fark, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD ekonomisiyle birlikte yakla\u015f\u0131k 200 baz puana (bp; %0,01) \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu da getiri arayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in dolar cinsi varl\u0131klar\u0131 daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Mart 2026 ABD istihdam raporu 250 binin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) \u00e7izgide kalmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) daha temkinli; Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde mart enflasyonu %2,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselse de b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu politika fark\u0131 EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131nda (opsiyon, vadeli i\u015flem gibi enstr\u00fcmanlar) 2025\u2019teki iyimserlik zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve hava tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. EUR\/USD\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k risk reversal\u2019lar art\u0131k putlara (sat\u0131m opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma\/arzu edilen pozisyon) daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veriyor. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n euronun daha da d\u00fc\u015fmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek prim \u00f6dedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda euronun zay\u0131flamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 ya da bu zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefleyen stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. 1,0750 veya 1,0700 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun i\u015flem hakk\u0131 verdi\u011fi seviye) EUR\/USD put opsiyonu almak, 1,0800 destek seviyesinin (fiyat\u0131n tutunma e\u011filimindeki b\u00f6lge) alt\u0131na olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in basit bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyet i\u00e7in \u201cbear put spread\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put al\u0131p\/satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren opsiyon stratejisi) kurulabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro\/dolar 1,17\u2019de yatay: Risk reversal iyile\u015fti, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma talebi azald\u0131. Faiz fark\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede desteklese de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verisi-Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi\/ECB temkini bask\u0131 yarat\u0131p put stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44351","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44351","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44351"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44351\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44351"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44351"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44351"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}