UOB ekonomistleri, **USD\/JPY**\u2019nin (dolar\/yen paritesi) **a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m** (fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve teknik g\u00f6stergelere g\u00f6re tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 durum) seviyelerinden toparland\u0131ktan sonra k\u0131sa vadede s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesini bekliyordu. Ancak y\u00fckseli\u015fin **159,60** alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fcler. Ayr\u0131ca **159,35** seviyesini de ek bir **diren\u00e7** (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselmekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) olarak i\u015faret ettiler.<\/p>\n
**Destek** (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) **158,90**\u2019dayd\u0131; **158,65** alt\u0131na ini\u015f ise paritenin yeniden **yatay bantta** (belirli bir aral\u0131kta gidip gelme) i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesine i\u015faret edecekti. **1\u20133 hafta** g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde, **159,60** korunursa **157,50**\u2019nin yeniden test edilmesini bekliyorlard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Parite daha \u00f6nce **157,86**\u2019ya geriledi ve ard\u0131ndan toparland\u0131; 09 Nisan\u2019da spot fiyat (anl\u0131k piyasa fiyat\u0131) **158,60** seviyesindeydi. Haberde, metnin bir **Yapay Zek\u00e2 arac\u0131** (otomatik i\u00e7erik \u00fcretim sistemi) yard\u0131m\u0131yla olu\u015fturuldu\u011fu ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
10 Nisan 2025\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde USD\/JPY, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan toparland\u0131ktan sonra hassas bir noktadayd\u0131. Genel beklenti dolar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi, ancak **159,60**\u2019ta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda da bu diren\u00e7 a\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a **157,50**\u2019nin yeniden test edilmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n
Bu beklentiyle, olas\u0131 bir **t\u00fcrev stratejisi** (dayanak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n fiyat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle yap\u0131lan i\u015flem) olarak **159,60** seviyesinde veya biraz \u00fczerinde **al\u0131m opsiyonu (call)** satmak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilirdi. **Al\u0131m opsiyonu**, al\u0131c\u0131ya belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmedir; sat\u0131c\u0131 ise bu hakk\u0131 yerine getirme y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcstlenir. Kullan\u0131lan **kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike)**, opsiyonun ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011fu fiyatt\u0131r. Bu i\u015flem, USD pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131yorsa **covered call** (eldeki varl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131), ta\u015f\u0131nm\u0131yorsa **naked call** (dayanak varl\u0131k olmadan opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131) olarak adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. Ama\u00e7, paritenin diren\u00e7 \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kmayaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesiyle **prim** (opsiyonu satarken al\u0131nan \u00fccret) toplamakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak daha geni\u015f ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm belirleyiciydi. ABD\u2019de o d\u00f6nemde a\u00e7\u0131klanan Mart 2025 **enflasyon** verileri, t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi; bu da **Fed**\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) **faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131** ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k **Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOJ)** bir ay \u00f6nce **negatif faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131** (faizin s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu uygulama) yeni sonland\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu **politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131** (iki \u00fclke merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi) USD\/JPY\u2019yi destekledi.<\/p>\n
Bu temel g\u00fc\u00e7, izlenen teknik diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti. Nisan 2025 sonlar\u0131nda USD\/JPY geri \u00e7ekilmek yerine **159,60**\u2019\u0131 net bi\u00e7imde a\u015ft\u0131 ve **160,00**\u2019\u0131 da k\u0131rarak 30 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin ard\u0131ndan ilk kez bu seviyenin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu durum, **naked call** satanlar i\u00e7in ciddi zarar anlam\u0131na gelirdi; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc dayanak varl\u0131k olmadan opsiyon sat\u0131m\u0131nda olas\u0131 zarar teorik olarak s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131za yak\u0131nd\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7, d\u00f6nemin ana riskini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131: **Japon yetkililerin m\u00fcdahalesi** (kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak amac\u0131yla piyasaya d\u00f6viz al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m\u0131yla girilmesi). 160 seviyesi a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131ktan k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra gelen m\u00fcdahale, **oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131** (fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert de\u011fi\u015fmesi) art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu ortamda daha uygun bir se\u00e7enek, **opsiyon sat\u0131n almak** olabilirdi; \u00f6rne\u011fin **straddle** (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda bir call ve bir put alarak, yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck harekette kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen yap\u0131). Bu, hem yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramadan hem de m\u00fcdahale sonras\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanma olana\u011f\u0131 sunard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 hareketin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131na inananlar i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m ise **bear call spread** olabilirdi: **159,60**\u2019tan bir call sat\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan (\u00f6rne\u011fin **160,00**) call almak. Bu yap\u0131, prim geliri sa\u011flarken USD\/JPY diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerine sert \u00e7\u0131karsa **azami zarar\u0131** (en fazla kay\u0131p) net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131mdan toparland\u0131: UOB\u2019ye g\u00f6re 159,60\/159,35 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7, 158,90 destek; 159,60 a\u015f\u0131lmazsa 157,50 g\u00fcndemde. Ancak Fed-BOJ ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 160\u2019\u0131 k\u0131rd\u0131rd\u0131; naked call tehlikeli, spread\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44350","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44350","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44350"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44350\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44350"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44350"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44350"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}