ING ekonomistleri, Nisan ay\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Polonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (NBP) faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. PPK, Nisan\u2019da politika faizini (referans faiz) %3,75\u2019te b\u0131rakt\u0131. Kurul, Mart\u2019ta faizi 25 baz puan (bp) indirmi\u015f, Nisan\u2019da ise de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Nisan a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 k\u0131sa ve tarafs\u0131zd\u0131; k\u00fcresel akaryak\u0131t fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirdi. Kurulun, gelecek verileri izleyerek ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ile emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n (ham maddeler; petrol, gaz gibi) enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye etkisini g\u00f6rerek \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
NBP Ba\u015fkan\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede enflasyonun petrol ve do\u011fal gaz gibi enerji emtias\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131na, ayr\u0131ca yurt i\u00e7indeki vergi ve d\u00fczenleme kararlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Buna akaryak\u0131tta \u00d6TV (excise duty; belirli \u00fcr\u00fcnlere al\u0131nan \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim vergisi) ve KDV (VAT; katma de\u011fer vergisi) dahildir. Kurulun ayr\u0131ca daha y\u00fcksek yak\u0131t maliyetlerinin di\u011fer fiyatlara ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (pass-through; maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n genel fiyatlara aktar\u0131lmas\u0131) izlemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck politika; emtia fiyatlar\u0131, jeopolitik riskler, maliye politikas\u0131 (fiscal policy; b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131 ve vergiler), yak\u0131t fiyat kurallar\u0131, GSYH de\u011fi\u015fimi (GDP; \u00fclkenin toplam \u00fcretimi) ve \u00fccret dinamiklerine (wage dynamics; \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131 ve kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131) ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. ING\u2019nin temel senaryosu, D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Akaryak\u0131t Fiyatlar\u0131 program\u0131n\u0131n (CPN) Temmuz sonuna kadar s\u00fcrmesi ve y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama enflasyonun %3,2 olmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu oran, Basra K\u00f6rfezi sava\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 ve NBP\u2019nin Mart projeksiyonundaki %2,3 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n
Bu senaryoya g\u00f6re, faizler en az 2026 sonuna kadar sabit kalabilir; faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te yap\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirmeye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, NBP\u2019nin uzun s\u00fcre faizleri sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc do\u011fru \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Politika faizi 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine girerken de %3,75\u2019te kald\u0131. Bu istikrar, Kurulun ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki jeopolitik \u015foklardan sonra benimsedi\u011fi temkinli ve veri odakl\u0131 duru\u015fu do\u011fruluyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eu a\u015famada temel sorun, \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d enflasyon (sticky inflation; beklenenden yava\u015f gerileyen, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon) ve bunun 2025\u2019te \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha diren\u00e7li \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u0131ll\u0131k tahmin %3,2 iken, Polonya istatistik kurumunun Mart 2026 verisi man\u015fet enflasyonu (headline inflation; enerji ve g\u0131da dahil genel endeks) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, enerji ve \u00fccretlerden gelen etkilerin s\u00fcrmesi nedeniyle, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d modunda tutuyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %3,1 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde kalmas\u0131yla s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n destekledi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7 talep, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ve temel fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor. Brent petrol varil fiyat\u0131 2025\u2019teki Basra K\u00f6rfezi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirvelerden gerileyerek 88 dolar civar\u0131nda dengelense de, enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda oynakl\u0131k riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu unsurlar birlikte, NBP\u2019nin yaz aylar\u0131na kadar faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 daha olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, Polonya zlotisi faiz e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa vadeli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n (front end; 0-2 y\u0131l gibi k\u0131sa vadeler) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in Forward Rate Agreement\u2019lar\u0131n (FRA; ileri tarihte uygulanacak faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcnden sabitleyen s\u00f6zle\u015fme) mevcut %3,75 seviyesinin de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fini fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Bu ortamda, faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131ndan yararlanan gelir odakl\u0131 stratejilerin, faizde y\u00f6nl\u00fc (art\u0131\u015f\/ini\u015f) pozisyonlara g\u00f6re \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, Polonya faiz swaplar\u0131na (interest rate swap; sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) y\u00f6nelik opsiyonlar (options; belirli fiyat\/ko\u015fulla alma-satma hakk\u0131) y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde enflasyon beklenen h\u0131zda d\u00fc\u015fmezse daha \u015fahin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riskini (hawkish shift; daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, faiz art\u0131rma e\u011filimi) yeterince fiyatlam\u0131yor olabilir. NBP\u2019nin \u00fccret dinamikleri ve maliye politikas\u0131na odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, bu verilerde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizler piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. Bu nedenle, \u015fu an d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131sa da, faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 konumlanmak uzun vadeli bir koruma (hedge; riski dengeleme) olarak mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Polonya\u2019da g\u00f6zler NBP\u2019de: ING, PPK\u2019n\u0131n faizi %3,75\u2019te uzun s\u00fcre sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon, enerji-vergiler ve \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131 \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d\u00fc uzat\u0131rken, zlotide d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44344","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44344"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44344\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44344"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44344"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44344"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}