ABD\u2019de T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi, t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n genel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) enflasyonu martta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. \u015eubatta %2,4\u2019t\u00fc ve beklentiyle ayn\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE %0,9 artt\u0131; \u015fubatta art\u0131\u015f %0,3\u2019t\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131larak hesaplanan enflasyon) ayl\u0131k %0,2, y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,6 y\u00fckseldi. Veri sonras\u0131 ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY, dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) %0,15 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 98,65\u2019e indi.<\/p>\n
Rapor \u00f6ncesi beklenti, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 ve ayl\u0131k %0,9 gelmesi; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ise ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,7 olmas\u0131yd\u0131. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD-\u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin enflasyonu yukar\u0131 itmesine ba\u011fland\u0131.<\/p>\n
28 \u015eubat\u2019tan bu yana West Texas Intermediate (WTI, ABD ham petrol\u00fc i\u00e7in referans fiyat) iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes ilan\u0131na ra\u011fmen yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 y\u00fckseldi. Martta WTI neredeyse %50 artt\u0131; varil fiyat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 67 dolardan ay sonuna do\u011fru 100 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faizi %3,5\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %75 olarak fiyatlad\u0131; 9 Mart\u2019ta bu oran %17\u2019ydi. EUR\/USD i\u00e7in belirtilen seviyeler 1,1730, 1,1800, 1,1900; destek seviyeleri ise 1,1650, 1,1560 ve 1,1500 olarak payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mart enflasyon verisi, man\u015fet enflasyonun (genel T\u00dcFE) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015fin ana nedeni, \u015fubat sonundan itibaren jeopolitik gerilimle artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 oldu. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon ise %2,6 ile y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor; para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha kritik olan g\u00f6sterge bu.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo Fed i\u00e7in zor bir denge yarat\u0131yor. WTI ham petrol bu hafta varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 92 dolara gerilese de, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi 75 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki seviyelerin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde. Petrol\u00fcn y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, man\u015fet enflasyonun h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, belirsizli\u011fin kendisini fiyatlayan i\u015flemler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX, piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 21 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrediyor; bu, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da gerilimin yeniden t\u0131rmanabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 hamlesi i\u00e7in faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine opsiyonlar (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) izlenebilir. CME FedWatch Tool (piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131ndan Fed faiz olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karan ara\u00e7) eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %9 g\u00f6steriyor; iki ay \u00f6nce bu olas\u0131l\u0131k yoktu. Strangle stratejisi (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) Fed\u2019in s\u00fcrpriz bir karar vermesi halinde i\u015fleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskin en do\u011frudan fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 yer enerji piyasas\u0131. WTI opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cimplied volatility\u201d (\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k; opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek. Ate\u015fkes bozulur ve petrol yeniden 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rarsa al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 zarar ile getiri imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunabilir. Kal\u0131c\u0131 bir anla\u015fma halinde petrol d\u00fc\u015ferse sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) de\u011fer kazanabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle EUR\/USD bu dinamiklere duyarl\u0131 olabilir. Enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon kal\u0131c\u0131 olursa ve Fed, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na g\u00f6re daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faizleri daha y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli) kal\u0131rsa dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir. EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131, paritenin 1,1500 destek seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesi riskine g\u00f6re konum almada kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol \u015foku ABD\u2019de man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019yi martta %3,3\u2019e, ayl\u0131k %0,9\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek %2,6\u2019da kald\u0131. Fed\u2019in faizi y\u00fcksek tutma beklentisi artt\u0131, DXY geriledi; VIX 21. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44341","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44341"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44341\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44341"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44341"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44341"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}