ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (ayl\u0131k) mart ay\u0131nda %0,9 oldu. Sonu\u00e7 beklentilerle uyumlu geldi.<\/p>\n
Veri, t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6steriyor. Kaynak metinde ba\u015fka rakam payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mart enflasyonu %0,9 ile beklendi\u011fi gibi geldi. Piyasa i\u00e7in s\u00fcrpriz olmasa da, y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede d\u00fc\u015fmeyece\u011fini teyit ediyor. Bu durum, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) politika faizini art\u0131rma s\u00fcrecini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. (Politika faizi, Fed\u2019in bankalara uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve piyasadaki faizleri y\u00f6nlendiren temel faiz oran\u0131d\u0131r.)<\/p>\n
Politika faizi %6,00 seviyesindeyken piyasa yaz \u00f6ncesinde en az iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha olabilece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor. SOFR\u2019a (gecelik teminatl\u0131 fonlama faizi; bankalar\u0131n birbirine k\u0131sa vadeli bor\u00e7 verirken referans ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz) ba\u011fl\u0131 opsiyonlarda (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) hacim art\u0131yor; beklenti faizin %6,50 ve \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Traderlar (k\u0131sa vadeli al-sat yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar) bu ortamda Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (gelecekte belirlenen fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) \u201cshort\u201d pozisyonu, yani fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynama stratejisini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131 hisse piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz; bor\u00e7lanma maliyetini art\u0131r\u0131r ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 \u015firketleri daha fazla bask\u0131lar. VIX (piyasadaki oynakl\u0131k\/korku g\u00f6stergesi) 25\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye 2025\u2019teki dalgal\u0131 d\u00f6nemden beri kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyordu. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n S&P 500 gibi ana endekslerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in \u201cput\u201d opsiyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD\u2019de faizler Avrupa ve Japonya\u2019ya g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek. Dolar endeksi son bir y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Euro ve yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda uzun dolar (dolar de\u011fer kazan\u0131r beklentisiyle pozisyon alma) y\u00f6n\u00fc \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda da destek bulabilir.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun kaynaklar\u0131ndan biri olarak WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, arz endi\u015feleriyle ge\u00e7en ay varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. (WTI, ABD referans ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr.) Bu enerji kaynakl\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 enflasyonu yukar\u0131 iten ana unsurlardan biri. Petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde \u201ccall\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131 (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayan alma hakk\u0131) daha y\u00fcksek fiyat beklentisiyle kullan\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu e\u011filim, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 %5 civar\u0131nda seyretmesiyle birle\u015fince enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015fma riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de mart T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,9 ile beklentiye paralel geldi. Y\u00fcksek enflasyon Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 uzatabilir; tahvilde \u201cshort\u201d, borsada sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131, VIX y\u00fckseli\u015fi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar temas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44338","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44338","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44338"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44338\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44338"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44338"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44338"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}