ABD Dolar\u0131, \u0130ran ate\u015fkesiyle ilgili belirsizli\u011fin azalmas\u0131yla dolar aleyhine a\u00e7\u0131lan k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015flemler) kapanmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Japon Yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 160,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n kald\u0131. USD\/JPY, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 157,88\u2019den yakla\u015f\u0131k 159,20\u2019ye toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131; \u0130ran, Cumartesi Pakistan\u2019\u0131n \u0130slamabad kentinde ba\u015flamas\u0131 beklenen bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 sorgulad\u0131. ABD, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7it) ge\u00e7en deniz trafi\u011fini y\u00f6netmesine ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131; iyile\u015fme oldu\u011funa dair bir bilgi payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yen, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cstagflasyon\u201d (y\u00fcksek enflasyon + zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme) endi\u015fesini b\u00fcy\u00fctmesiyle Mart\u2019ta yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 geriledi. Bu risk, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan Japonya i\u00e7in daha kritik. Enflasyonun y\u00fckselme ihtimali, Ba\u015fbakan Sanae Takaichi\u2019nin \u201cte\u015fvik\u201d planlar\u0131na (ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in kamu harcamas\u0131\/vergi ad\u0131m\u0131) ilgiyi art\u0131rd\u0131 ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) \u00fczerinde faiz art\u0131rma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcretici fiyat verileri enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Mach \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (PPI: \u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi (\u015eubat: %2,1). Ayl\u0131k PPI da %0,1\u2019den %0,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde odak, ABD Mart T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne (CPI: t\u00fcketici sepeti fiyatlar\u0131yla \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen enflasyon) d\u00f6necek. Enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 ile yakla\u015f\u0131k iki y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesinde gelmesi bekleniyor; bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) y\u00f6nlendirmesini (ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck faiz mesajlar\u0131) etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 petrol \u015fokunun Japonya \u00fczerinde yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 stagflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 hafife al\u0131nmamal\u0131. Bu tablo Yeni satmay\u0131 (JPY\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 beklentisiyle pozisyon almak) kolay bir i\u015flem gibi g\u00f6sterse de temkinli olmak gerekir. May\u0131s 2025\u2019te Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi (kurlar\u0131 etkilemek i\u00e7in piyasaya do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) sadece birka\u00e7 saat i\u00e7inde 5 yenlik h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareket yaratt\u0131 ve \u201ckald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131\u201d (bor\u00e7lanarak b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fclen) bir\u00e7ok pozisyonu tasfiye etti.<\/p>\n
Bu iki z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7\u2014g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar ile Japonya kaynakl\u0131 s\u00fcrekli m\u00fcdahale tehdidi\u2014y\u00fcksek \u201coynakl\u0131k\u201d (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) ortam\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Bu nedenle tek y\u00f6ne bahis almak riskli; fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketinden faydalanan stratejiler daha uygun olabilir. USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) 1 ayl\u0131k \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) %12,5 civar\u0131nda; bu oran 2024 sonundaki %8 ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n USD\/JPY 160\u2019a yak\u0131n: \u0130ran ate\u015fkesi belirsizli\u011fi azal\u0131nca dolar \u015fortlar\u0131 kapand\u0131. Petrol art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yen\u2019i zay\u0131flat\u0131p stagflasyon korkusu b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. ABD CPI ve olas\u0131 Japon m\u00fcdahalesi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44333","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44333","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44333"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44333\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44333"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44333"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44333"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}