Piyasalar, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (AMB) 30 Nisan\u2019da faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini 6 baz puan (bp; y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri, yani %0,01) olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Y\u0131l sonuna kadar ise toplam yakla\u015f\u0131k 55 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 fiyatlar\u0131n i\u00e7inde. Art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in en \u00e7ok \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan tarihler Haziran ve Eyl\u00fcl; Haziran\u2019da art\u0131\u015f olursa Temmuz\u2019da bir hamle ihtimali de yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin (piyasadaki gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck faiz tahminleri) AMB net \u015fekilde \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yerine daha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131n\u0131 tercih eden) sinyal vermedik\u00e7e 50 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; petrol fiyatlar\u0131 daha da gerilese bile. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki belirsizlik, piyasalar\u0131n Nisan sonuna kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ad\u0131m i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kan\u0131t g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn nedenlerinden biri.<\/p>\n
Bu fiyatlamaya g\u00f6re euro, Japon yeni (JPY) ve \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 (CHF) gibi \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli\u201d (faiz getirisi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck) para birimlerine k\u0131yasla daha avantajl\u0131 konumda. EUR\/USD\u2019nin (euro\/dolar paritesi) 1,1700 civar\u0131nda veya biraz alt\u0131nda dengelenmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa \u015fu anda AMB\u2019nin 27 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca 8 baz puan fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da k\u0131sa vadede ad\u0131m at\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na dair inanc\u0131n zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bunun temel nedeni, AMB\u2019nin harekete ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce daha fazla kan\u0131t g\u00f6rmek istemesi. K\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131na (petrol ve do\u011fal gaz tedariki) ili\u015fkin belirsizlik de bekle-g\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Haziran ve Temmuz, AMB\u2019nin \u201cs\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya\u201d (para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma: \u00f6zellikle faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla kredi ve talebi so\u011futma) ba\u015flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in en olas\u0131 d\u00f6nemler olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev piyasalar (vadeli i\u015flemler ve opsiyon gibi, gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck fiyatlamay\u0131 yans\u0131tan ara\u00e7lar) y\u0131l sonuna kadar 60 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n iptal edilmedi\u011fini, yaln\u0131zca ertelendi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Belirleyici olan, bu faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin ne kadar \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131\u201d (kolay de\u011fi\u015fmeyen) oldu\u011fu. Son veriler, beklentilerin korunabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Mart enflasyonu %2,8 geldi; bu da merkez bankas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor. 2025\u2019te de benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: Piyasadaki g\u00fcvercin beklentiler, inat\u00e7\u0131 (beklenenden uzun s\u00fcren) enflasyon verileriyle s\u0131k s\u0131k bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, euronun Japon yeni ve \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para birimlerine g\u00f6re daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesi i\u00e7in uygun bir zemin yarat\u0131yor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 ultra gev\u015fek politikas\u0131n\u0131 (\u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz, bol likidite) s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 kendi faiz art\u0131\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde zirveye yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 sinyalini verdi. Bu \u201cpolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlere gitmesi), euro tutmay\u0131 yen veya franka k\u0131yasla daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD i\u00e7in \u015fimdilik 1,0850 civar\u0131nda veya biraz alt\u0131nda bir denge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. AMB\u2019den beklenen \u201c\u015fahinlik\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 e\u011filimi) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde mevcut fiyata zaten yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in ya Avrupa\u2019dan beklenmedik derecede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik veriler ya da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) g\u00fcvercin bir y\u00f6ne d\u00f6nmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar AMB\u2019den Nisan\u2019da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, Haziran-Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor; y\u0131l sonu 55-60 bp fiyatlan\u0131yor. Enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrerken euro, yen\/franka g\u00f6re \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; EUR\/USD 1,0850-1,1700 band\u0131nda dengeleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44332","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44332"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44332\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44332"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44332"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44332"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}