Kanada Mart ay\u0131 istihdam verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u015eubat ay\u0131nda 83 binlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan bordrolu istihdam\u0131n (i\u015fverenlerin maa\u015f bordrosuna eklenen net \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131) 15 bin artmas\u0131 bekleniyordu. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, aydan aya de\u011fi\u015fen istihdam rakamlar\u0131na g\u00f6re daha net bir g\u00f6sterge olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 baz puanl\u0131k (bp; faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019lik ad\u0131m) bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Ancak ek faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentiler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. K\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde (\u00f6n u\u00e7; vadesi k\u0131sa olan, politika faizine en duyarl\u0131 faizler) riskler daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na daha az istekli, gerekirse faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n) bir sonuca do\u011fru kaym\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Dikkat, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik faaliyeti ve istihdam\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilecek USMCA (ABD\u2011Meksika\u2011Kanada Anla\u015fmas\u0131) yeniden m\u00fczakerelerine kayabilir. USD\/CAD kuru sava\u015f haberleriyle y\u00f6n buldu. Gerilimin daha da azalmas\u0131 halinde parite 1,3700 seviyesine do\u011fru hareket edebilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasalar\u0131n BoC\u2019den yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun fazla agresif g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc not etmi\u015ftik. Kanaatimiz, oynak ayl\u0131k istihdam verileri yerine i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131 i\u00e7in temel sinyal oldu\u011fuydu. Bu \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d beklenti, Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki bu de\u011ferlendirme do\u011fruland\u0131; BoC o tarihten bu yana daha \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ya da indirimi konusunda belirgin bir e\u011filim g\u00f6stermeyen) bir duru\u015fa ge\u00e7ti. Odak, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki at\u0131l kapasite (i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131; ekonomide kullan\u0131lmayan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc) \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u0130statistik Kanada\u2019n\u0131n son raporunda ulusal i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n Mart 2026\u2019da %5,9\u2019a y\u00fckselmesiyle, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gerek\u00e7esi ortadan kalkt\u0131. Piyasalar art\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek sonuna kadar faiz indirimi ihtimalini fiyatlamaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo ABD\u2019den keskin bi\u00e7imde ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Son enflasyon verisi %3,4 geldi ve bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bir s\u00fcre daha beklemede kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. BoC\u2019nin faiz indirebilece\u011fi, Fed\u2019in ise sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 USD\/CAD \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu hafta itibar\u0131yla parite 1,3650 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (opsiyon gibi, de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu ortam, ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 Kanada dolar\u0131nda ek zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon almay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 2-3 ay vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike; opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131n fiyat\u0131) 1,3750 ve 1,3800 olan USD\/CAD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, kur y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalan\u0131rken trend tersine d\u00f6nerse olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n
USMCA yeniden m\u00fczakereleri, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik faaliyeti i\u00e7in arka planda risk olmaya devam ediyor. Ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinden gelebilecek olumsuz haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilecek ek bir tetikleyici olabilir. Bu nedenle USD\/CAD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanan pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak makul bir strateji olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kanada istihdam\u0131 sonras\u0131 rota net: BoC \u201cg\u00fcvercinle\u015fiyor\u201d, piyasalar faiz indirimini fiyatl\u0131yor. Fed beklemede; ayr\u0131\u015fma USD\/CAD\u2019i yukar\u0131 itiyor. USMCA riski s\u00fcrerken 1,3700\u20131,3800 call\u2019lar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44320"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44320\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}