K\u00fcresel hisse senetleri, ABD piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde yeniden y\u00fckseldi. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye duyarl\u0131 (d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel) sekt\u00f6rler daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterirken, daha temkinli (defansif) ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dalgalanmal\u0131 hisseler geride kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasadaki korku g\u00f6stergesi olarak izlenen VIX endeksi 20 seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi. Asya borsalar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi, Avrupa vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) art\u0131ya i\u015faret etti. Jeopolitik gerilim s\u00fcrse de ABD vadeli i\u015flemleri genel olarak yatay seyretti.<\/p>\n
Teknoloji taraf\u0131nda yaz\u0131l\u0131m hisseleri zay\u0131f kal\u0131rken, yar\u0131 iletkenler (\u00e7ip \u00fcreticileri) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yar\u0131 iletkenler, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde ABD\u2019de yaz\u0131l\u0131ma g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 puan, Avrupa\u2019da ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 puan daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Son dokuz ayda ABD\u2019de donan\u0131m (hardware: fiziksel teknoloji ekipmanlar\u0131) en iyi performans g\u00f6steren sekt\u00f6r olurken, yaz\u0131l\u0131m en zay\u0131f sekt\u00f6r oldu. Donan\u0131m, bu d\u00f6nemde yaz\u0131l\u0131ma g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 125 y\u00fczde puan daha iyi getiri sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcncellemede, borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren (listed) hisselerin \u00f6tesinde varl\u0131k da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na da (asset allocation: yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n farkl\u0131 varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 aras\u0131nda payla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131) de\u011finildi; \u00f6zel sermaye (private equity: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6rmeyen \u015firketlere ortakl\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) ve \u00f6zel kredi (private credit: banka d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n \u015firketlere verdi\u011fi krediler) gibi alanlar da an\u0131ld\u0131. Teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde performans kal\u0131plar\u0131nda bir de\u011fi\u015fim oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Defansif ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dalgalanmal\u0131 hisselerde sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel rallinin (b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00fc\u00e7lenen y\u00fckseli\u015fin) devam edebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Mart 2026 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (non-farm payrolls: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki sekt\u00f6rlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanan istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) verisinde 285 bin ki\u015filik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f, bu \u201crisk alma\u201d (risk-on: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) havas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada sanayi ve finans ETF\u2019lerinde (ETF: borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131labilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu sekt\u00f6rlerin liderli\u011fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
VIX\u2019in 20\u2019nin alt\u0131na inmesi, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 2025\u2019te sonbahar d\u00fczeltmesi (correction: belirgin ama ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131 olmayan geri \u00e7ekilme) \u00f6ncesindeki sakin d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Mart 2026\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde endeksin 17-19 band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla s\u00fcren d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dalgalanma, opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz hale getiriyor. Bu durum, S&P 500 gibi geni\u015f endekse y\u00f6nelik, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin alt\u0131nda olan (out-of-the-money: \u015fu an k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7memi\u015f) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir \u201csigorta\u201d (hedge: olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma) olarak almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sunuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ana e\u011filim, donan\u0131m ile yaz\u0131l\u0131m aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck fark. 2026 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana (y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana) SOX yar\u0131 iletken endeksi %25\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselirken, IGV gibi yaz\u0131l\u0131m ETF\u2019leri art\u0131da kalmakta zorland\u0131. Bu s\u00fcren ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, e\u015fle\u015ftirilmi\u015f i\u015flem (pairs trade: iki varl\u0131kta ayn\u0131 anda z\u0131t y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon alarak farktan yararlanma) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: yar\u0131 iletkenlerde al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131n\u0131rken, ayn\u0131 anda yaz\u0131l\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc fonlar\u0131nda sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, her son dakika habere tepki vermenin riskini yeniden g\u00f6steriyor; 2025 boyunca jeopolitik g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc bunun \u00f6rneklerini sundu. CBOE (Chicago Opsiyon Borsas\u0131) verilerine g\u00f6re put\/call oran\u0131 (sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na oran\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu talebinin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eder) 0,75\u2019e geriledi. Bu, al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015ftah ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunmaya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 talep anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu nedenle, g\u00fcnl\u00fck haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131 para rotasyonuna (sermayenin sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda yer de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi) odaklanmak daha anlaml\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 h\u0131zlan\u0131yor: K\u00fcresel borsalar y\u00fckselirken VIX 20 alt\u0131na indi. D\u00f6ng\u00fcseller ve \u00f6zellikle yar\u0131 iletkenler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, yaz\u0131l\u0131m geride. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite put hedge ve pairs trade f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44314"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44314\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}