G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD), Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde ons ba\u015f\u0131na 76,00 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve y\u00fckseli\u015f serisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi sonras\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n) yeniden h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131 ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n (para politikas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6neten kurumlar) faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na gidece\u011fi endi\u015fesini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in fiyatlar destek buldu.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan da destek ald\u0131. Dolar\u0131n gerilemesi, di\u011fer para birimleriyle al\u0131m yapanlar i\u00e7in maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ancak Dolar\u0131n yeniden dengelenmesi ve \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) e\u011filimi, ate\u015fkesin ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fine dair belirsizlikle birlikte y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail\u2019in Hizbullah\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 s\u00fcrerken temkinli hava korundu. Benjamin Netanyahu, \u0130srail\u2019in yak\u0131nda L\u00fcbnan ile do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ise anla\u015fmaya tam uyum sa\u011flanana kadar ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin \u0130ran \u00e7evresinde konu\u015flu kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, hafta sonu \u0130slamabad\u2019da yap\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri de izledi. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in, \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerle toplant\u0131larda ABD taraf\u0131na liderlik edebilece\u011fi konu\u015fuluyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc heyetlerin geldi\u011fine dair resmi bir do\u011frulama bildirilmedi.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) Mart toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, yetkililerin \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d (veri gelene kadar acele etmeden izleme) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Tutanaklarda, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon risklerinin art\u0131k daha dengeli oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlardaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisini bekledi.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in temkinli duru\u015fu, 2023\u2019te h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n etkisini g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in verilen \u201cbekleme\u201d d\u00f6nemine benziyor. Mart tutanaklar\u0131, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l enerji kriziyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenen enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelede \u201ctamam\u201d demeye haz\u0131r olmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle bug\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon verisi, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00dcFE verisinin sonucu ve ate\u015fkesin s\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fi gibi \u201ciki ucu keskin\u201d riskler nedeniyle, ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek seyrediyor. CBOE Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (VIX: piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 25 civar\u0131nda. Bu seviye tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde ve piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert fiyat hareketleri bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortamda yaln\u0131zca y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak daha riskli.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen stratejiler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u201cuzun straddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu stratejide yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 hem al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) hem de sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) sat\u0131n al\u0131r. B\u00f6ylece T\u00dcFE\u2019nin beklenenden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelmesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f ya da \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n bozulmas\u0131yla sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f gibi iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedeflenir; sonu\u00e7 tahmini yapma zorunlulu\u011fu azal\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f fiyat\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcksek seviyelerde olmas\u0131 nedeniyle sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) almak, korunma (hedge: portf\u00f6y\u00fc olumsuz harekete kar\u015f\u0131 sigortalama) amac\u0131yla veya d\u00fczeltme beklentisiyle de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Jeopolitik riskler sakinle\u015fir ve Fed yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi sinyali vermezse, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 76,00 dolarda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen gerek\u00e7eler zay\u0131flar. 2024\u2019te, jeopolitik endi\u015felerin azalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan de\u011ferli metallerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert geri \u00e7ekilme, bu risk i\u00e7in benzer bir \u00f6rnek sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 76 dolarda y\u00fckseli\u015fini koruyor; \u0130ran ate\u015fkesiyle petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc enflasyon\/sert faiz kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Ancak belirsizlik, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ve kritik ABD T\u00dcFE verisi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44311","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44311","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44311"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44311\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44311"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44311"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44311"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}