ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sonland\u0131rarak Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 98,90 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar, k\u0131sa vadeli ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) politikas\u0131na dair ipucu i\u00e7in Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131n\u0131n ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisini bekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkesine y\u00f6nelik belirsizli\u011fin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan uzakla\u015f\u0131p daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) nedeniyle destek buldu. \u0130srail, Hizbullah\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, Binyamin Netanyahu \u0130srail\u2019in yak\u0131nda L\u00fcbnan\u2019la do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, anla\u015fmaya tam uyum sa\u011flanana kadar ABD kuvvetlerinin \u0130ran \u00e7evresinde konu\u015flu kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. JD Vance, Steve Witkoff ve Jared Kushner\u2019\u0131n, \u0130ran\u2019la olas\u0131 uzun vadeli bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek i\u00e7in bu hafta sonu Pakistan\u2019da bulu\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Esmaeil Baghaei, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitirmeye y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin, ABD\u2019nin ate\u015fkes taahh\u00fctlerine uymas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu; bunun L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7erdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Washington ve \u0130srail bu talebi reddetti. Fed\u2019in Mart toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funu (veriler netle\u015fene kadar kararlar\u0131 erteleme yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131) korudu\u011funu, ancak petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon risklerinin daha dengeli hale geldi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda en \u00e7ok i\u015flem g\u00f6ren para birimidir; d\u00fcnya d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerinin %88\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturur (2022) ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 6,6 trilyon dolarl\u0131k hacme kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelir. Fed politikas\u0131, faizi (bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti) ve %2 enflasyon hedefi \u00fczerinden dolar\u0131 etkiler; ayr\u0131ca parasal geni\u015fleme veya parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yoluyla da y\u00f6n verir. Parasal geni\u015fleme, piyasaya daha fazla para vererek finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetme; parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ise para arz\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi, bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak kritik T\u00dcFE verisi \u00f6ncesinde 98,90 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrediyor. K\u0131sa vadeli dolar opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. VIX de (piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) bu hafta 15,8\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131. Beklentinin \u00fczerindeki bir enflasyon verisi, Fed\u2019in daha \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi daha s\u0131k\u0131 ad\u0131mlara yatk\u0131n) bir tutum tak\u0131nmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak DXY\u2019yi 99,50 \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 s\u00fcrekli risk, g\u00fcvenli liman (belirsizlikte de\u011ferini daha iyi korumas\u0131 beklenen varl\u0131k) olarak dolara g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban talebi sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu durum enerji piyasas\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; Brent petrol varil fiyat\u0131 92 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor ve bu da enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu tablo, Euro veya Yen gibi para birimlerinde koruyucu \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan opsiyon) almay\u0131, hafta sonu olas\u0131 ani t\u0131rmanmalara kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli bir korunma (hedge) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in n\u00f6tr duru\u015fu, bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n gelecek verilere \u00e7ok ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor; bu nedenle bug\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00dcFE verisi piyasalar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha da kritik. 2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde benzer \u015fekilde inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimlerinin DXY\u2019yi iki haftada %3\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckseltti\u011fini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Bu nedenle, \u201cstraddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d opsiyon stratejileri (y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan, yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sert harekette kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon kurgular\u0131) etkili olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc do\u011fru y\u00f6n\u00fc bilmeden de b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi dolar sahnede: DXY 98,90\u2019da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc kesti. ABD-\u0130ran belirsizli\u011fi g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131r\u0131yor, VIX y\u00fckseliyor. Enflasyon s\u00fcrprizi Fed\u2019i \u015fahinle\u015ftirip endeksi 99,50 \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44309"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44309\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}