USD\/JPY, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 159,15 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. ABD Dolar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve genel olarak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerle destek buldu. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Mart T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) verisini izliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131 halinde \u201ciki haftal\u0131k bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik bombard\u0131man ve sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ask\u0131ya almay\u0131\u201d kabul etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 bo\u011fazdan petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131 \u201c\u00e7ok k\u00f6t\u00fc y\u00f6netmekle\u201d su\u00e7lad\u0131 ve ate\u015fkes ko\u015fullar\u0131na uyulmazsa geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 emri verebilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance ile temsilciler Steve Witkoff ve Jared Kushner\u2019in, \u0130ran\u2019la olas\u0131 uzun vadeli bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek \u00fczere Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Pakistan\u2019da temaslarda bulunmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Japonya\u2019da Ba\u015fbakan Sanae Takaichi, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki aksamalar nedeniyle arz\u0131 dengelemek i\u00e7in May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ek petrol stokunun (stratejik rezerv) piyasaya s\u00fcr\u00fclmesini de\u011ferlendirdiklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapabilece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor; bu durum yen\u2019i g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Citi Research\u2019ten Tomohisa Fujiki, b\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131m\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019e kadar \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yen, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik gidi\u015fat\u0131, BoJ\u2019un para politikas\u0131 ve ABD-Japonya tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki farka ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak hareket eder. Ayr\u0131ca piyasalarda risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) de\u011fi\u015ftik\u00e7e yenin de\u011feri de oynayabilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 159\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik korkulara ba\u011fl\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6neldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu gerginlik petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da yukar\u0131 itti: Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (ileride teslim i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) son iki haftada %12\u2019nin \u00fczerinde artarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n cazibesini art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu hareketin haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na dayal\u0131 oldu\u011fu, sadece temel g\u00f6stergelerden (makro veriler gibi) kaynaklanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 unutulmamal\u0131.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcn\u00fcn ana g\u00fcndemi, bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE raporu. Bu veri, piyasada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine neden olabilecek temel tetikleyici olabilir. Piyasa beklentisi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonda (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yava\u015flama. Bu beklenti ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse dolar bir miktar zay\u0131flayabilir ve parite bu seviyelerden sert geri \u00e7ekilebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k enflasyonun beklentiden y\u00fcksek gelmesi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na daha yak\u0131n) kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek pariteyi 160 seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Nisan\u2019daki BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali belirgin. Bu ad\u0131m, yenin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na do\u011frudan kar\u015f\u0131 koyabilir. BoJ\u2019un Mart 2024\u2019te negatif faiz politikas\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. \u0130kinci bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu e\u011filimi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir ve USD\/JPY\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczeltme (sert geri \u00e7ekilme) yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle izlenmesi gereken kritik g\u00f6sterge, ABD ve Japonya tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki faiz (getiri) fark\u0131. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi ile Japonya\u2019daki benzer vadeli tahvil faizi aras\u0131ndaki fark \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k 380 baz puan seviyesinde. (Baz puan: faizin %0,01\u2019ine e\u015fit \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc birimi.) Bu seviye ge\u00e7mi\u015fte dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutan bir yap\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. BoJ\u2019un faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 bu fark\u0131 daraltarak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY\u2019nin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine oynayan \u201cput opsiyonlar\u0131\u201dn\u0131 (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) daha cazip hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskler ile para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 anda devrede olmas\u0131, ana teman\u0131n oynakl\u0131k oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Cboe\u2019nin USD\/JPY Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (JYVIX) \u015fimdiden 2025 sonundaki piyasa stresinden bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu tablo, y\u00f6n konusunda emin olmayan ancak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketi bekleyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in \u201coynakl\u0131k\u201d odakl\u0131 stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 fiyattan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) veya strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 fiyatlardan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) gibi yap\u0131lar kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta sonu Pakistan\u2019da planlanan diplomatik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, piyasalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir belirsizlik. \u0130ran\u2019la gerilimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren bir anla\u015fma \u00e7\u0131karsa petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sert gerileyebilir, dolar\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde ek \u201crisk primi\u201d (risk nedeniyle olu\u015fan ekstra de\u011fer) azalabilir ve USD\/JPY d\u00fc\u015febilir. Tersine g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman \u00f6zelli\u011fini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek pariteyi daha da yukar\u0131 itebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: USD\/JPY 159,15\u2019te! H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi dolara g\u00fcvenli liman talebi getirirken, Brent 105$\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131. G\u00f6zler ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de; s\u00fcrpriz 160\u2019\u0131 tetikleyebilir, BoJ faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44304","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44304"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44304\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44304"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44304"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44304"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}