GBP\/USD, d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan geriledi ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,3430 civar\u0131nda seyretti. ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi konusundaki belirsizli\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 artan riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f nedeniyle daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131n\u0131n ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Enflasyonu (CPI) verisini bekliyor. CPI, t\u00fcketicilerin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k ve ayl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimini g\u00f6steren, enflasyonun ana \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fcd\u00fcr. Genel hava temkinli kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail, Hizbullah\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, Binyamin Netanyahu \u0130srail\u2019in yak\u0131nda L\u00fcbnan ile do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Donald Trump, anla\u015fmaya tam uyum sa\u011flanana kadar ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin \u0130ran \u00e7evresinde konu\u015flu kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
JD Vance, Steve Witkoff ve Jared Kushner\u2019\u0131n bu hafta sonu Pakistan\u2019da \u0130ran\u2019la olas\u0131 uzun vadeli bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek \u00fczere bir araya gelmesi bekleniyor. \u0130ran\u2019dan \u0130smail Begaei, sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ABD\u2019nin ate\u015fkes taahh\u00fctlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Begaei, bu taahh\u00fctler aras\u0131nda L\u00fcbnan\u2019da ate\u015fkesin de bulundu\u011funu belirtirken; ABD ve \u0130srail bunun anla\u015fman\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Andrew Bailey, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n, \u015feffaf olmayan (i\u015flemleri ve riskleri d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan net g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen) 3 trilyon dolarl\u0131k (2,2 trilyon sterlin) \u00f6zel kredi piyasas\u0131ndaki bask\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131, 2008 benzeri bir krizi tetikleyebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki jeopolitik gerginliklere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, o d\u00f6nemdeki temkinli piyasa havas\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcn de etkisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f; ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi ve \u0130srail\u2019in askeri ad\u0131mlar\u0131yla beslenerek paran\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesine neden oluyor. G\u00fcvenli liman, belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha az riskli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc varl\u0131klard\u0131r. Bu durum, CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nde (VIX) de izleniyor. VIX, piyasadaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar sert dalgalanabilece\u011fi beklentisi) \u00f6l\u00e7er. VIX\u2019in 18 civar\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek bir taban olu\u015fturdu\u011fu, 2025 \u00f6ncesi 14 olan ortalamaya k\u0131yasla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u00fcksek belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ani piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. VIX \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option) veya VIX vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi (futures) almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda beklenen oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanman\u0131n do\u011frudan bir yoludur. Al\u0131m opsiyonu, belirli bir vadede belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131d\u0131r; vadeli i\u015flem ise ileri bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc do\u011furan s\u00f6zle\u015fmedir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, jeopolitik \u015foklarda de\u011fer kayb\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131k hisse senedi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 portf\u00f6yler i\u00e7in \u201chedge\u201d yani riskten korunma i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n temel g\u00fcvenli liman rol\u00fc, 2025 ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015fti ve bu tema s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Dolar Endeksi (DXY), y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 y\u00fckseldi. DXY, dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri sepetine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini izler. Ortado\u011fu gerilimi s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e bu e\u011filimin devam etmesi bekleniyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak\u2014vadeli i\u015flemler veya bir para sepetine kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 yoluyla\u2014daha temkinli bir tercih olabilir. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn, de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerdir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130ngiliz Sterlini k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu endi\u015feye Bailey ge\u00e7en y\u0131l da dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta enflasyonun ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte %3,1 ile \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin duraksamas\u0131, GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu tabloda GBP\/USD\u2019de sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option) almak, sterlindeki olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir pozisyon alma y\u00f6ntemi olabilir. Sat\u0131m opsiyonu, belirli vadede belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bailey\u2019nin 2025\u2019te de\u011findi\u011fi enerji fiyat \u015foku riski, enflasyon beklentilerini daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Enflasyon beklentisi, piyasalar\u0131n gelecekte fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar bekledi\u011finin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fcd\u00fcr. Bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indiriminde piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha yava\u015f hareket edebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, faiz oran\u0131 t\u00fcrevlerini inceleyebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde pozisyon almak, 2026 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle i\u015flem yapman\u0131n bir yoludur. SOFR, ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma faizini g\u00f6steren referans orand\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bailey\u2019nin \u00f6zel kredi piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131s\u0131, piyasan\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,5 trilyon dolara b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiyle daha da \u00f6nemli hale geldi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kredi notlu (y\u00fcksek riskli) \u015firket tahvillerinde kredi spreadleri son iki ayda 50 baz puan a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; bu, finansal stresin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder. Kredi spreadi, riskli tahvillerin faizinin risksiz getiriye g\u00f6re ne kadar \u201cek\u201d faiz verdi\u011fini g\u00f6sterir; baz puan, y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biridir (0,01). Olas\u0131 bir kredi olay\u0131na (temerr\u00fct gibi borcun \u00f6denememesi) kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, Markit CDX Kuzey Amerika High Yield Endeksi gibi endeksler \u00fczerinde kredi temerr\u00fct takas\u0131 (CDS) korumas\u0131 almak do\u011frudan bir y\u00f6ntemdir. CDS, borcun \u00f6denmeme riskine kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta benzeri bir s\u00f6zle\u015fmedir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz kap\u0131da: GBP\/USD 1,3430\u2019a \u00e7ekilirken dolar, ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi belirsizli\u011fiyle g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Piyasa ABD CPI\u2019a kilitli; VIX y\u00fcksek taban, hedge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131, sterlinde k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k ve kredi riski \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44302"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44302\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}