G\u00fcney Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Bank of Korea – BOK), politika faizini %2,5\u2019te sabit tuttu. Karar, beklentilerle uyumlu geldi.<\/p>\n
Son toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 faiz %2,5 seviyesinde kald\u0131. Ana politika faizinde de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
BOK\u2019un %2,5 seviyesindeki temel faizi (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi y\u00f6nlendirmek i\u00e7in belirledi\u011fi ana faiz) sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenen bir ad\u0131md\u0131; piyasa bunu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00f6nceden fiyatlad\u0131. Bu, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fiminden (faiz indirimine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f) \u00e7ok, \u201cuzun s\u00fcre bekle-g\u00f6r\u201d mesaj\u0131 veriyor. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde sert bir yeniden fiyatlama i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tetikleyici g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, d\u00f6viz ve tahvil piyasas\u0131nda yak\u0131n vadeli opsiyonlarda \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) gerilemesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Odak \u015fimdi ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile faiz fark\u0131nda. Fed faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,0 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in bu fark won \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. USD\/KRW kurunun 1370 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar wonun yatay-zay\u0131f seyrinden faydalanan yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin para birimi \u00fczerinde \u201cput\u201d almak (belirli bir tarihe kadar, belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon; kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle i\u015flem). 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n wonu zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu etki h\u00e2l\u00e2 ge\u00e7erli.<\/p>\n
Faiz swaplar\u0131nda (sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) BOK\u2019un n\u00f6tr duru\u015fu getiri e\u011frisinin (vadeye g\u00f6re faizlerin \u00e7izildi\u011fi e\u011fri) k\u0131sa vadeli taraf\u0131n\u0131 dengeliyor. Piyasa, olas\u0131 yeni faiz indirimlerinin beklentisini y\u0131l\u0131n daha ilerisine \u00f6telerken e\u011frinin yatayla\u015fmas\u0131 (k\u0131sa ve uzun vadeli faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131) g\u00fcndemde. Bu tabloda, ileride gev\u015feme olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle uzun vadelerde \u201creceiver swap\u201d (sabit faiz al\u0131p de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6deme; faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle tercih edilir) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; k\u0131sa vadeli tarafta ise hareket alan\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Faizin sabit kalmas\u0131, KOSPI 200 i\u00e7in olumsuz bir fakt\u00f6r\u00fc azalt\u0131yor; ancak sabit tutman\u0131n nedeni \u00f6nemli. 2025\u2019te, yar\u0131 iletken (\u00e7ip) kaynakl\u0131 ihracat toparlanmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 endi\u015feleri vard\u0131; bu toparlanman\u0131n \u015fimdi h\u0131z kesti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Belirsizlik nedeniyle, endekste bant hareketine (yatay seyir) y\u00f6nelik stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201cstrangle\u201d satmak (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 anda satmak; piyasan\u0131n dar bantta kalmas\u0131ndan prim kazanmay\u0131 hedefler).<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan veriler enflasyon ve ihracat rakamlar\u0131 olacak. Enflasyon \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d seyretti (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyip y\u00fcksek seviyede kalma e\u011filimi) ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde geriledikten sonra son d\u00f6nemde yeniden %2,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Enflasyonun tekrar h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, BOK\u2019u \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye itebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ihracatta sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, beklenenden daha erken faiz indirimi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz yok ama kritik mesaj: BOK faizi %2,5\u2019te sabit tuttu. Piyasada oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015febilir, Fed faiz fark\u0131 wonu bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Swapta yatayla\u015fma, KOSPI\u2019da bant; odak enflasyon-ihracat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44300","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44300"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44300\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44300"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44300"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44300"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}