EUR\/USD, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya erken i\u015flemlerinde 1,1690 civar\u0131na geriledi. Euro, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. Piyasalar, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lgan iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesin s\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fi konusunda temkinliydi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc \u0130smail Bagei, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, sava\u015f\u0131 bitirecek g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ABD\u2019nin ate\u015fkes taahh\u00fctlerini yerine getirmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Bu taahh\u00fctler aras\u0131nda L\u00fcbnan\u2019da ate\u015fkes de oldu\u011funu belirten Bagei\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ABD ve \u0130srail bunun anla\u015fman\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance ile temsilciler Steve Witkoff ve Jared Kushner, bu hafta sonu Pakistan\u2019da \u0130ran\u2019la olas\u0131 uzun vadeli bir anla\u015fma i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. \u0130ki haftal\u0131k \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131zl\u0131k d\u00f6nemi genel olarak korunuyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6lgede gerginlik, \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu\u2019nun \u0130srail\u2019in \u201cHizbullah\u2019\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde vurmaya devam edece\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Devam eden belirsizlik, ABD dolar\u0131na talebi destekledi. (G\u00fcvenli liman: Belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p dolar gibi daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi.)<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin Mart ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE (CPI) enflasyon verisi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. (T\u00dcFE\/CPI: T\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim; enflasyonun en yayg\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi.) Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin Mart\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor; \u015eubat\u2019ta %2,4\u2019t\u00fc. Art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fle ili\u015fkili oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Avrupa\u2019da ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131), fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 s\u00fcrerse ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyali verdi. (S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma: Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi, ekonomide talebi so\u011futmay\u0131 hedefleyen politika.) Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasalar iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tamamen fiyatlad\u0131; Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalmas\u0131yla art\u0131yor. Bu durum, dolar\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Jeopolitik belirsizlik yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 tedirgin etti\u011fi i\u00e7in sermaye, dolar cinsi varl\u0131klara (de\u011ferlemesi dolar \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan varl\u0131klar) kay\u0131yor. Bu tablo, \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (risk-off: Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan uzakla\u015f\u0131p nakit ve dolar gibi g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) d\u00f6nemlerine benziyor ve genelde EUR\/USD gibi pariteleri bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcn\u00fcn en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcndemi ABD T\u00dcFE verisi. Enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3\u2019e h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. 2022\u2019de de benzer \u015fekilde, beklentiden y\u00fcksek enflasyon verileri dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) daha sert faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. (Fiyatlamak: Piyasan\u0131n bir beklentiyi kur ve fiyatlara \u00f6nceden yans\u0131tmas\u0131.) Bug\u00fcn y\u00fcksek bir veri, bu e\u011filimi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek EUR\/USD\u2019yi daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00dcFE verisinin sonucu iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert hareket riski ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, uygun bir t\u00fcrev stratejisi oynakl\u0131k almak olabilir. (T\u00fcrev: De\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fme; \u00f6r. opsiyon. Oynakl\u0131k\/volatilite: Fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta hareket etti\u011fini g\u00f6sterir.) \u201cAt-the-money straddle\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyata yak\u0131n) stratejisinde hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131n\u0131r; b\u00f6ylece a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne giderse gitsin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareketten faydalanma hedeflenir. (Opsiyon: Belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme.) EUR\/USD\u2019de 1 haftal\u0131k opsiyonlar\u0131n \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d (implied volatility: Opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) %10\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da piyasan\u0131n belirgin bir harekete haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6tesinde, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki istikrar dolar i\u00e7in kritik olmaya devam ediyor. Gerilimin artmas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itebilir ve dolar talebini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Ate\u015fkes bozulursa, dolara g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin yeniden artmas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, giderek daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d hale gelen ECB (\u015fahin: Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli tutum), bu y\u0131l en az iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle euroya destek veriyor. (Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131: Fed ve ECB gibi merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde politika izlemesi.) Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, EUR\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek bir denge unsuru.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, T\u00dcFE sonras\u0131 olu\u015fabilecek sert hareketleri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara y\u00f6nelik pozisyon kurmak i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirebilir. (Pozisyon: Bir varl\u0131kta al\u0131m ya da sat\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ta\u015f\u0131nan i\u015flem.) Y\u00fcksek enflasyon verisiyle paritede sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015funa g\u00fcvenenler i\u00e7in al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Zay\u0131f enflasyon verisiyle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7rama ise jeopolitik risklerin bask\u0131n kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalarda kritik g\u00fcn: EUR\/USD 1,1690\u2019a inerken k\u0131r\u0131lgan ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi dolara g\u00fcvenli liman talebi yarat\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de; ECB \u015fahinli\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir, volatilite art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44299","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44299","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44299"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44299\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44299"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44299"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44299"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}