Japonya Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Sanae Takaichi, Reuters\u2019\u0131n cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re h\u00fck\u00fcmetin May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ek petrol rezervini piyasaya s\u00fcrme plan\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u00d6neri, yurt i\u00e7i enerji arz\u0131n\u0131 (\u00fclke i\u00e7indeki enerji tedarikini) dengede tutmay\u0131 hedefliyor.<\/p>\n
Plan, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda yak\u0131n zamanda sa\u011flanan iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkese ra\u011fmen H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gemi ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 s\u00fcrerken g\u00fcndeme geldi. Bu aksakl\u0131klar, ta\u015f\u0131ma ve tedarik yollar\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, petrol k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (arz\u0131n yetersiz kalmas\u0131) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u015fu an i\u00e7in acil bir risk olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca h\u00fck\u00fcmetin olas\u0131 bir k\u0131tl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nacak \u00f6nlemleri konu\u015facak durumda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da belirtti.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n May\u0131s\u2019ta petrol rezervi sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, en yak\u0131n vadeli ham petrol vadeli i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131 (yak\u0131n ay teslimatl\u0131 petrol kontratlar\u0131) \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Piyasaya yeni arz girece\u011fi i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede fiyatlarda geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Ancak bu ad\u0131m, temel talepte (t\u00fcketim ihtiyac\u0131nda) kal\u0131c\u0131 bir de\u011fi\u015fimden de\u011fil, ciddi bir jeopolitik (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 siyasi-askeri) riskten kaynaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes kritik unsur ve bizim g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcze g\u00f6re \u00e7ok k\u0131r\u0131lgan. D\u00fcnya petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si bu tek noktadan ge\u00e7ti\u011fi i\u00e7in, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden alevlenmesi fiyatlar\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; bu etki Japonya\u2019n\u0131n rezerv sat\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck olur. Bu gerilim, ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) almay\u0131 makul k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Klasik bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali (arz\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131) ile uzun vadede y\u00fckseli\u015f riski (jeopolitik istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k). 2022\u2019de ABD\u2019nin stratejik rezerv sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli olsa da fiyatlar\u0131 sadece ge\u00e7ici olarak rahatlatm\u0131\u015f, sonra piyasan\u0131n ger\u00e7ekleri yeniden belirleyici olmu\u015ftu. Bu nedenle planlanan sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyattan y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlara (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynayan i\u015flemlere) girmek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa bir f\u0131rsat yaratabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fbakan ile Maliye Bakan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7eli\u015fkili a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor; bu da genellikle opsiyon primlerini (opsiyonun pe\u015fin \u00f6denen bedelini) y\u00fckseltir. K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki ilk aksakl\u0131klar s\u0131ras\u0131nda 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde y\u00fcksek seyreden yakla\u015f\u0131k %35 seviyesindeki petrol fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131) May\u0131s\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken yeniden artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, petrol\u00fcn y\u00f6n\u00fc ne olursa olsun bu oynakl\u0131ktan kazanmaya odaklanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n %90\u2019dan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse, Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131n ad\u0131mlar\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetin endi\u015fesini daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yans\u0131tan i\u015faret olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeli. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada bir geri \u00e7ekilme, ard\u0131ndan yaz boyunca belirgin bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Takvim spreadi (farkl\u0131 vadelerde ayn\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnde al-sat kombinasyonu), yani May\u0131s veya Haziran vadeli kontrat\u0131 sat\u0131p A\u011fustos vadeli kontrat\u0131 almak, bu dengeyi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde kritik hamle: Japonya, May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ek rezervi piyasaya s\u00fcrmeyi de\u011ferlendiriyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019deki k\u0131r\u0131lgan ate\u015fkes s\u00fcrerken k\u0131sa vadede fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131, yaz boyunca y\u00fckseli\u015f riski \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44298","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44298"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44298\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44298"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44298"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44298"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}