GBP\/USD Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da y\u00fckseldi; %0,31 art\u0131\u015fla 1,3400\u2019lerin ortas\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. 1,3480\u2019i test ettikten sonra geri \u00e7ekildi. 1,3400-1,3450 band\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201ctavan\u201d (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi) gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Parite, nisan ba\u015f\u0131nda 1,3150 civar\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 300 pip (kurda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ondal\u0131k basamakta \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131; GBP\/USD\u2019de 0,0001) toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ki haftal\u0131k ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 varl\u0131k) olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talebi azaltt\u0131. \u015eubat ABD PCE enflasyonu (Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) 12:30 GMT\u2019de beklentinin \u00fczerinde geldi: man\u015fet (genel) y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8 (beklenti %2,6), \u00e7ekirdek (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,0; her iki \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm de ayl\u0131k %0,4 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda \u015fimdi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Mart ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI; T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) verisi var. Beklentiler man\u015fette ayl\u0131k %0,8 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,1-%3,3; \u00e7ekirdekte ayl\u0131k %0,2-%0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,7.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD 1,3435 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ile 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019lar\u0131n (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama; son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc: 1,3388 ve 1,3372. Stokastik RSI (momentum g\u00f6stergesi; a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgelerini izler) 62\u2019ye yak\u0131n. Faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekteki politika faizine ili\u015fkin piyasa beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den \u00f6nce faiz indirece\u011fine neredeyse hi\u00e7 ihtimal vermiyor.<\/p>\n
2025 bahar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3450 diren\u00e7 seviyesini a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu seviye \u00f6nemli bir tavan oldu ve parite bu y\u00fcksek seviyeleri kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131lamad\u0131. \u015eimdi 1,2720\u2019ye daha yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cgetiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131n\u201d (faizlerin daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle dolar varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n daha cazip hale gelmesi) zaman i\u00e7inde bask\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131 ortadan kalkmad\u0131 ve mevcut stratejinin merkezinde yer al\u0131yor. Son veriler ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,5 seviyesinde \u201ckat\u0131\u201d (kolay gerilemeyen) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonunun ise %3,2 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterirken; Fed \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na g\u00f6re daha temkinli. Bu faiz fark\u0131 sterlini bask\u0131lamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve paritenin kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f yapmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tabloda, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (dayana\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6viz kuru olan opsiyon ve vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler gibi ara\u00e7lar) i\u015flemi yapanlar GBP\/USD\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Put opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi) almak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir ya da paritenin 1,2600\u2019e do\u011fru gerilemesine do\u011frudan bahis anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; GBPUSD 1 ayl\u0131k oynakl\u0131k endeksi yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,5 civar\u0131nda. Bu da opsiyon primlerini (opsiyonun maliyeti) nispeten ucuz k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, 1,2800-1,2850 civar\u0131nda tavan\u0131 olan \u201ccall spread\u201d satmak (al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla kurulan, kazanc\u0131 ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Bu strateji, parite yatay kal\u0131r ya da d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar ve g\u00f6r\u00fclen kal\u0131c\u0131 direnci kullan\u0131r. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, y\u00fckseli\u015flerin zay\u0131f kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve zamanla s\u00f6nece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumludur.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik unsur da dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131ksa da, s\u00fcren k\u00fcresel belirsizlik ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman olarak desteklemeye devam ediyor. Dolar talebindeki bu s\u00fcreklilik, sterlin gibi para birimleri i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Temel sorun Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fu (enflasyonu kontrol i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli yakla\u015f\u0131m). Faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri piyasas\u0131 bu y\u0131l Fed\u2019den yaln\u0131zca bir ya da iki faiz indirimi fiyatl\u0131yor; bu, \u00f6nceki beklentilere g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim. Bu da daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar senaryosunu destekliyor ve GBP\/USD\u2019deki her y\u00fckseli\u015fe temkinle yakla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin\/dolar d\u00f6rt seansta y\u00fckselse de 1,3400-1,3450 tavan\u0131na tak\u0131ld\u0131; PCE s\u00fcrprizi ve yakla\u015fan ABD T\u00dcFE kritik. Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi dolar avantaj\u0131n\u0131 koruyor; opsiyonlarda ucuz koruma f\u0131rsat\u0131 var.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44295","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44295"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44295\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44295"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44295"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44295"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}