USD\/JPY per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckselerek 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019y\u0131 (SMA: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki kapan\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n basit ortalamas\u0131) 159,19 seviyesinde test etti, ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) geri \u00e7ekildi. Yaz\u0131 haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken 158,99 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; %0,28 art\u0131da.<\/p>\n
Grafik, y\u0131ll\u0131k zirve olan 161,46 sonras\u0131nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tepeler ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diplerle ilerleyen, \u201cba\u015f-omuz\u201d formasyonuna benzer (klasik ba\u015f-omuz kadar net olmayan) bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiliyor. Bu da k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI: fiyat\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 50 seviyesine do\u011fru geriliyor. Bu durum sat\u0131\u015f ivmesinin (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin g\u00fcc\u00fc) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
9 Nisan g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip seviyesi olan 158,48\u2019in alt\u0131na inilmesi, 8 Nisan \u201cswing low\u201d (k\u0131sa vadeli dip) seviyesi 157,88\u2019e do\u011fru alan a\u00e7abilir. Bunun alt\u0131nda 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (orta vadeli ortalama) 157,35 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (daha uzun vadeli ortalama) 156,85 seviyeleri destek konumunda.<\/p>\n
Paritenin 159,19\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde 160,00 civar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Raporda bu b\u00f6lgenin, Japon yetkililerin olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi (kurda h\u0131zl\u0131 hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 piyasaya al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yoluyla etki etme) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan izlenen bir alan oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu teknik zay\u0131fl\u0131k, son verilerle de destekleniyor: Mart 2026 ABD enflasyon verisi beklentiden daha zay\u0131f geldi. Bu durum ABD tahvil getirilerini (faiz oran\u0131\/bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc ve dolar\u0131n cazibesini azaltt\u0131. ABD-Japonya faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) son bir ayda 20 baz puan\u0131n (1 baz puan = %0,01) \u00fczerinde darald\u0131; bu da parite \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in izlenecek ana seviye 158,48 deste\u011fi. Bu seviyenin net \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f formasyonunu teyit edebilir. Bu senaryoda put opsiyonu almak (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) veya ba\u015fka \u201ck\u0131sa\u201d pozisyonlar (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flemler) g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. \u0130lk hedefler 157,88 ve 157,35 band\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Tersi durumda, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc toparlanmada 159,19\u2019daki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama ve \u00f6zellikle 160,00 civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7 bekleniyor. 2024\u2019te bu seviyelere yakla\u015f\u0131rken Japonya\u2019dan geldi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen m\u00fcdahale ad\u0131mlar\u0131 hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d call opsiyonu satmay\u0131 (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m opsiyonu; prim geliri hedeflenir) veya \u201cbear call spread\u201d (k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6ren, iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda call al-sat kombinasyonu) gibi stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 159,19\u2019u test edip 158,99\u2019a \u00e7ekildi. Ba\u015f-omuz benzeri yap\u0131 ve RSI d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. 158,48 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 157,88-157,35 hedef. 160,00\u2019da m\u00fcdahale\/diren\u00e7 izleniyor. ABD enflasyon zay\u0131f, faiz fark\u0131 daral\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44292","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44292"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44292\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44292"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44292"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44292"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}