EUR\/USD per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,33 y\u00fckseldi. Parite, be\u015f haftan\u0131n zirvesi olan 1,1723 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,1700 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY \u2014 dolar\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla %0,18 d\u00fc\u015ferek 98,82\u2019ye indi.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6zler Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dayd\u0131. \u0130srail ve L\u00fcbnan, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar s\u00fcrse de bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ba\u015flamaya haz\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc. Benjamin Netanyahu ile Nawaf Salam aras\u0131ndaki telefon g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesinin ard\u0131ndan, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin gelecek sal\u0131 Washington\u2019da yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor. \u0130ran ise ate\u015fkesin \u0130srail-L\u00fcbnan s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 da kapsad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 geriledi. Bu durum euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. WTI\u2019daki (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) hareketler daha zay\u0131f dolarla birlikte g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ni (CPI \u2014 t\u00fcketici enflasyonunu \u00f6l\u00e7en veri) bekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD enflasyon verilerinde PCE Fiyat Endeksi (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi \u2014 Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,8 ile Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek PCE (enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7 enflasyon) \u015fubatta %3,1\u2019den %3\u2019e geriledi. 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %0,5 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131; beklenti %0,7 idi.<\/p>\n
4 Nisan\u2019da biten haftaya ait \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk kez ba\u015fvuran ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131) 219 bin oldu. Beklenti 210 bin, \u00f6nceki veri 203 bindi. Piyasalar, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) y\u0131l sonuna kadar toplam 56 baz puan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131) yapabilece\u011fini fiyatlad\u0131. (Baz puan: Faizde %0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim.)<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta EUR\/USD 1,1696 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite, 50\/100\/200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n (SMA \u2014 fiyat\u0131n belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalamas\u0131) bulundu\u011fu 1,1677 civar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi \u2014 fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 58 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Diren\u00e7, 1,1929\u2019dan gelen trend \u00e7izgisine ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrken; destek 1,1696 ile 1,1677 band\u0131nda izleniyordu.<\/p>\n
Bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1700\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Bu hareket, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ate\u015fkes beklentileri ve daha zay\u0131f ABD dolar\u0131yla desteklenmi\u015fti. 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki bu hava art\u0131k geride kald\u0131; odak yeniden para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 faiz yollar\u0131 izlemesi) d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Parite \u015fu anda 1,1450 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu da temel ekonomik g\u00f6stergelerin yeniden belirleyici oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te ECB\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7ekte faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi, Fed\u2019in izledi\u011fi yola k\u0131yasla tam olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi. Mart 2026 ABD verileri, CPI\u2019nin %3,1 ile y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti\u011fini ve Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu korudu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP \u00f6nc\u00fc tahmini (uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici enflasyonu \u2014 Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin standart enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) %2,5 ile daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Bu da ECB \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131nda da fark belirgin. Mart 2026 Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls \u2014 ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) 240 bin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %3,7\u2019de sabit kald\u0131. Almanya\u2019da ise IFO \u0130\u015f D\u00fcnyas\u0131 G\u00fcven Endeksi (\u015firketlerin beklentilerini g\u00f6steren anket) 87,5 ile zay\u0131f kald\u0131 ve ekonomide durgunlu\u011fun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, EUR\/USD\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rme yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. ABD\u2019de enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ve istihdam\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolardan yararlanan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin 1,1300 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 EUR\/USD put opsiyonu (parite d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran sat\u0131\u015f opsiyonu) almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 bir pozisyon olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak jeopolitik riskler yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. 2025\u2019te \u0130srail-L\u00fcbnan ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri piyasalar\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak sakinle\u015ftirmi\u015fti. Yeni bir gerilim, g\u00fcvenli liman hareketleriyle dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da kritik: Sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015f enflasyon beklentilerini h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD %0,33 y\u00fckselip 1,1723\u2019\u00fc test etti; DXY 98,82\u2019ye geriledi. Orta Do\u011fu ate\u015fkes sinyali risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Piyasalar ABD CPI\u2019\u0131, ECB-Fed ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 ve teknik destek\/diren\u00e7leri izliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44290","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44290","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44290"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44290\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44290"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44290"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44290"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}