Alt\u0131n, \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu\u2019nun L\u00fcbnan ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi; fiyatlar 4.800 dolar seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Netanyahu, L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki bir \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131nda 300\u2019den fazla ki\u015finin hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmesinin ard\u0131ndan, Beyrut ile do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l ili\u015fkilerin kurulmas\u0131na odaklanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
AFP\u2019ye g\u00f6re L\u00fcbnan, herhangi bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme \u00f6ncesinde ate\u015fkes istiyor. ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes s\u0131ras\u0131nda, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ilk 24 saatte b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kapal\u0131 kald\u0131; sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 140 gemi ge\u00e7erken, sadece 5 gemi ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fc (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) 95,60 dolar civar\u0131nda, %0,13 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Dolar Endeksi (Dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) %0,30 gerileyerek 98,63\u2019e indi. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 2 baz puan (0,02 y\u00fczde puan) d\u00fc\u015ferek %4,279\u2019a geriledi.<\/p>\n
ABD GSYH\u2019si (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,5 artt\u0131; beklenti %0,7\u2019nin alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu (Fed\u2019in takip etti\u011fi, g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1\u2019den %3\u2019e indi. \u0130lk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 219 bine y\u00fckselirken, devam eden ba\u015fvurular 1,794 milyona geriledi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar toplam 7,5 baz puan faiz indirimi fiyatlad\u0131. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) man\u015fette %3,3\u2019e (\u00f6nceki %2,4), \u00e7ekirdekte %2,7\u2019ye (\u00f6nceki %2,5) y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor; ayr\u0131ca Michigan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni verisi izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Birka\u00e7 ay \u00f6nce \u0130srail-L\u00fcbnan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ve ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi ihtimaliyle gerilimin d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine dair beklentiler olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 normal kapasitesinin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; normalde g\u00fcnde 90\u2019dan fazla petrol tankerinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi hat, \u015fu an s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Bu belirsizlik, alt\u0131n tutmak i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
2025 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131k (GSYH\u2019nin sadece %0,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi) 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine de ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131. Mart T\u00dcFE verisi beklentilerin \u00fczerinde geldi ve enflasyon, Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor; son veriler yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,8 civar\u0131nda. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve inmesi zor enflasyon ortam\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131 \u201cde\u011fer koruma arac\u0131\u201d olarak daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesiyle, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019den en az 50 baz puan faiz indirimi beklemeye ba\u015flad\u0131; bu, birka\u00e7 ay \u00f6nce fiyatlanan 7,5 baz puana g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim. Bu durum ABD tahvil faizleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz %4,15\u2019e daha yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Zay\u0131f dolar ve d\u00fc\u015fen tahvil faizleri, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in genelde destekleyici olur.<\/p>\n
Belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek ve fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (h\u0131zl\u0131 ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n) artabilece\u011fi bu ortamda opsiyonlar (belirli bir vadede, \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 5.000 dolar \u201cpsikolojik seviyesine\u201d (piyasada e\u015fik kabul edilen yuvarlak fiyat) do\u011fru hareketi hedeflemek i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanma hakk\u0131) veya bo\u011fa call spread (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksekten call satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren y\u00fckseli\u015f stratejisi) de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar, jeopolitik ya da ekonomik haberlerle alt\u0131n y\u00fckselirse yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli korur.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flem (futures: ileri tarihte teslim\/uzla\u015fma i\u00e7in standart s\u00f6zle\u015fme) yapanlar i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nce belirtilen teknik seviyeler kritik. 4.857 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesinin (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan e\u015fik) \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. \u00d6te yandan 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama (son 20 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131; trendi izlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r) \u015fu an 4.750 dolar civar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir destek seviyesi (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunma alan\u0131); bunun alt\u0131na inilmesi k\u0131sa vadede sert bir d\u00fczeltmeye i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda yeni ralli sinyali: Netanyahu\u2019nun L\u00fcbnan mesaj\u0131 ve zay\u0131f dolar, onsu 4.800\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskleri, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme-enflasyon ikilemi ve faiz indirimi beklentisi 5.000 hedefini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44286","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44286","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44286"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44286\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44286"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44286"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44286"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}