\u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131nda renminbi (CNY, \u00c7in yuan\u0131) en iyi performans g\u00f6steren para birimi oldu; oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) kontrol alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Analizler, ABD dolar\u0131ndan sonra \u201cikincil g\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 varl\u0131k) gibi davran\u0131p davranmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na odakland\u0131. Bunu, tasarrufa dayal\u0131 Asya-Pasifik benzerlerine g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc enerji dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Ak\u0131m (flow) verileri, CNY al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7in Devlet Tahvilleri\u2019nden (CGB, Chinese Government Bonds) \u00e7\u0131kan b\u00fcy\u00fck parayla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde CNY ile CGB pozisyonlar\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n elindeki varl\u0131k miktar\u0131) ters y\u00f6nde hareket etti. CNY al\u0131mlar\u0131, enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) y\u00fckselmesinin \u201creel faizleri\u201d (faizden enflasyon etkisi \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilece\u011fi endi\u015fesiyle CGB pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131na (pozisyon \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi) ba\u011fland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ay sonuna do\u011fru CGB talebi yeniden artt\u0131; CNY taraf\u0131 ise net sat\u0131\u015fa d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu, artan \u201chedge\u201d (kur riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan koruma i\u015flemi) ile uyumluydu. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek (Q2) ba\u015f\u0131ndaki veriler ise CNY ve CGB\u2019lerin ayn\u0131 anda net al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6reli getirilere (di\u011fer \u00fclkelere k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz\/kazan\u00e7) ra\u011fmen daha \u201cdo\u011frudan CNY riski\u201d (kur y\u00f6n\u00fcne a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon) al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (People\u2019s Bank of China) \u201creel efektif d\u00f6viz kurunun\u201d (REER; yuan\u0131n bir\u00e7ok para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 enflasyon farklar\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131narak hesaplanan de\u011feri) de\u011ferlenmesine diren\u00e7 g\u00f6stermesi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Alternatif yorum ise, \u00c7in\u2019de pandemi sonras\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmadan beri ilk kez \u201creflasyonun\u201d (ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n canlanmas\u0131) ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131; k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentilerinin (front-end yields; k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil faizleri) yanl\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi ve ate\u015fkes a\u00e7\u0131klanmadan \u00f6nce bile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) gev\u015femeye (faiz indirimi e\u011filimi) yak\u0131n durdu\u011fudur.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131nca, CNY\u2019nin g\u00fcvenli liman gibi davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; ancak bu ilk etapta yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00c7in devlet tahvillerini satmas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131yd\u0131. Tahvilden \u00e7\u0131kan paran\u0131n para birimine ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bu ters ili\u015fki, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ancak 2025\u2019in ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fi civar\u0131nda belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim ba\u015flad\u0131: CNY ve CGB\u2019lerde ayn\u0131 anda net al\u0131m g\u00f6zlenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc giri\u015flerin 2026\u2019ya da sarkt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durum, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n art\u0131k \u00c7in varl\u0131klar\u0131na daha do\u011frudan maruz kalmak istedi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Son veriler bunu destekliyor: Yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n CGB stoklar\u0131nda Mart 2026\u2019da 80 milyar yuan\u0131n \u00fczerinde net giri\u015f oldu ve bu, \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu, sadece paray\u0131 yuanda tutmak de\u011fil, daha az kur korumas\u0131yla \u00fclkenin bor\u00e7lanma piyasas\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma iste\u011finin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u201cT\u00fcrev\u201d (derivative; de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) piyasas\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in, s\u00fcren talep ve \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n istikrar tercihi, kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bir ayl\u0131k USD\/CNY \u201copsiyonlar\u0131nda\u201d (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) son d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyelere yakla\u015ft\u0131. Bu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131ktan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejileri daha cazip hale getiriyor. Beklenti, sert kopu\u015flar yerine kontroll\u00fc ve kademeli hareketler y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019de ger\u00e7ek bir reflasyon ihtimali, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde %5,1\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme (GSYH) ile destekleniyor. Bu istikrar, Fed\u2019in birka\u00e7 faiz indirimi sonras\u0131 \u201cbeklemeye ge\u00e7me\u201d sinyaliyle birlikte \u00c7in varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n risk-getiri dengesini de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki \u201cfaiz fark\u0131\u201d (interest rate differential; iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki makas) art\u0131k geni\u015flemiyor; bu da yuana temel destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, CGB pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 kur riskiyle kapatma yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 eskisi kadar etkili olmayabilir. Para birimi ve tahvillerin ayn\u0131 anda al\u0131nmas\u0131, do\u011frudan uzun CNY pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ya da istikrarl\u0131-g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yuan senaryosundan faydalanan opsiyon stratejilerini daha uygulanabilir k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu, k\u00fcresel piyasalar\u0131n \u00c7in varl\u0131klar\u0131na bak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yap\u0131sal bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eokta parlayan yuan: CNY, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131nda \u201cikincil g\u00fcvenli liman\u201d gibi g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Ak\u0131mlar CGB\u2019den \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015ftan giri\u015fe d\u00f6nd\u00fc; \u00e7ift al\u0131m 2026\u2019ya sarkt\u0131, oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44284","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44284"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44284\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44284"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44284"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44284"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}