ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), ABD PCE (Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131) verisinin enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d (kolay gerilemeyen) kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) temkinli duru\u015funu korumas\u0131yla 98,80 civar\u0131na geriledi. Haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n (Initial Jobless Claims: ilk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 talep edenlerin say\u0131s\u0131) beklentinin \u00fczerinde gelmesi ve ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerinin (Treasury yields: devlet tahvillerinin faiz oran\u0131) d\u00fc\u015fmesi dolara ek bask\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik cephede, bir \u0130srailli yetkilinin ABD bask\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki operasyonlar\u0131n yak\u0131nda gev\u015feyebilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesi ve \u0130srail\u2019in Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 konusunda L\u00fcbnan ile do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme sinyali vermesiyle tansiyon bir miktar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ancak askeri hareketlilik s\u00fcrd\u00fc ve b\u00f6lgedeki riskler y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD, ABD getirilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki (risk sentiment: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) k\u0131smi toparlanma ile 1,1700\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. GBP\/USD, dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla 1,3430 civar\u0131na toparland\u0131. USD\/JPY, getiriler d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in \u201ccarry\u201d cazibesinin (carry trade: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para birimiyle bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma) azalmas\u0131yla 159,00 yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyretti. AUD\/USD ise 0,7080 civar\u0131na hafif y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
WTI petrol y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kalsa da, arz\u0131n hemen bozulaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi azal\u0131nca daha dengeli seyretti; buna kar\u015f\u0131n daha geni\u015f Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Alt\u0131n, dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131, getirilerin d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve jeopolitik risklerin etkisiyle 4.771 dolar civar\u0131nda tutundu.<\/p>\n
10 Nisan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc verileri: Almanya HICP (uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici enflasyonu), Kanada istihdam, ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi), ABD fabrika sipari\u015fleri, ABD Michigan T\u00fcketici Endeksi, Michigan \u00dcniversitesi (UoM) 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentileri ve ABD ayl\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi.<\/p>\n
WTI, ABD\u2019de \u00fcretilen hafif ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc (light, sweet) ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr; Cushing teslim noktas\u0131 \u00fczerinden fiyatlan\u0131r ve Brent ile Dubai\u2019ye ek olarak \u00fc\u00e7 ana g\u00f6sterge petrolden biridir. Fiyatlar; arz-talep, jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, OPEC kararlar\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131 ve API ile EIA stok verilerinden etkilenir. API (Amerikan Petrol Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc) ve EIA (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) stok verileri, zaman\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %75\u2019inde birbirine %1 i\u00e7inde yak\u0131n seyreder.<\/p>\n
Fed, y\u00fcksek kalan enflasyon ile zay\u0131flama sinyali veren i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (core inflation: g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) ortalama %3,1 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrederken, haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselerek son d\u00f6nemde 245 bin ile 15 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu tablo, gelecekte faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131 konusunda belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor; Fed y\u00f6n\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik \u201cy\u00fcksek inan\u00e7l\u0131\u201d (conviction) pozisyonlar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik nedeniyle oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatility: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekir; \u00f6zellikle bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik ABD T\u00dcFE verisi etraf\u0131nda. B\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon stratejileri (options strategies: belirli bir vadede alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle kurulan pozisyonlar) daha uygun olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin hisse endeksi vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda veya EUR\/USD gibi maj\u00f6r paritelerde \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (long straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte almak) y\u00f6n tahmin etmeden sert harekete oynama imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ABD tahvil getirilerinin gerilemesine do\u011frudan bir tepki; piyasa daha erken faiz indirimini fiyatlamaya (pricing in: beklentinin fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131) ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 2024 ortas\u0131nda ekonomik yava\u015flama sinyalleri sonras\u0131 dolar\u0131n aylarca zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 e\u011filimli) merkez bankalar\u0131nca desteklenen para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 senaryosu g\u00fcndemde kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Petrol taraf\u0131nda, \u0130srail-L\u00fcbnan hatt\u0131nda gerilimin d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine dair haberler WTI fiyatlar\u0131na k\u0131sa vadeli tavan olu\u015fturdu; ancak b\u00f6lgesel gerginlik genel olarak fiyatlar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban sa\u011fl\u0131yor. OPEC+\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7en ay \u00fcretim kesintilerini koruma karar\u0131 da bu deste\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor ve ham petrol\u00fc dar bir bantta tutabilir. Bu ortam, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (OTM: kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut piyasa fiyat\u0131ndan uzak oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u015fu an k\u00e2rs\u0131z) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131p y\u00fcksek primlerden (premium: opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) gelir elde etme stratejisini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, hem jeopolitik risk priminden (risk premium: belirsizlik kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 talep edilen ek getiri) hem de ABD getirilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalan\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc getirisi olmayan (non-yielding: faiz\/kupon \u00f6demeyen) bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyeti azal\u0131yor. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri bu hafta %4,0\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na inerken, alt\u0131n\u0131n temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle ABD ve Almanya enflasyon verileri yukar\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz yaparsa, geri \u00e7ekilmeler al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fc, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yo\u011fun veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131; en kritik ba\u015fl\u0131klar ABD T\u00dcFE ve Kanada istihdam. ABD\u2019de enflasyonun y\u00fcksek gelmesi, yak\u0131n faiz indirimi anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131p dolarda sert toparlanma yaratabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Kanada istihdam\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f gelmesi, \u00f6zellikle ABD verisi de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olursa USD\/CAD\u2019de al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
PCE\u2019nin \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d enflasyonu ve zay\u0131f i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 DXY\u2019yi 98,80\u2019e itti; tahvil getirileri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. EUR\/USD 1,17\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Jeopolitik tansiyon azalsa da risk y\u00fcksek; T\u00dcFE kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44282"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44282\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}