Arjantin\u2019in sanayi \u00fcretimi (takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f) \u015eubat ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %8,7 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu oran, bir \u00f6nceki verideki %3,2\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla sanayi \u00fcretiminde daha sert bir daralmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da \u00fcretimin ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re daha zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Arjantin\u2019in sanayi \u00fcretimindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn h\u0131zlanmas\u0131, ekonomideki daralman\u0131n derinle\u015fti\u011fine dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal. Bu e\u011filim, \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 ve genel ekonomik faaliyet \u00fczerinde bask\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Arjantin varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olumsuz (ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131) alg\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131flayan ekonomi Arjantin Pezosu (ARS) \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Ek de\u011fer kayb\u0131 beklentisi, ARS\u2019de \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyonu\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bu, ARS vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinin sat\u0131lmas\u0131yla ya da dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put option: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) al\u0131narak uygulanabilir.<\/p>\n
Sanayideki bu gerileme, Merval hisse endeksini de do\u011frudan etkileyebilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc endeksin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131 sanayi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131. Merval endeksi veya Arjantin hisselerini izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 (ETF: endeksi takip eden, borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u00fczerine sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda beklenen borsa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyen bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Resesyon verilerine ra\u011fmen, Mart ay\u0131 ayl\u0131k enflasyonu %15 gibi y\u00fcksek bir seviyede kald\u0131. Bu durum, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 zor bir noktaya s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek i\u00e7in faiz indirimini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu politika s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, ekonomik bask\u0131n\u0131n ve varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
\u00dclke riskinin artmas\u0131yla \u201ctemerr\u00fct\u201d (bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyememe) riski de y\u00fckseliyor. Arjantin\u2019in \u00fclke risk primi yakla\u015f\u0131k 1.900 baz puan (bp: y\u00fczde 0,01\u2019lik birim; 1.900 bp = %19) seviyesinde. Bu, son \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f. Artan kredi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya bu risk art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in Arjantin devlet tahvilleri \u00fczerine kredi temerr\u00fct takas\u0131 (CDS: borcun \u00f6denmeme riskine kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta benzeri s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir \u201chedge\u201d (korunma) hamlesi olabilir. Bu seviye, 2024 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki bor\u00e7 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rma endi\u015felerinden beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen d\u00fczeylere yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
K\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 alarm: Arjantin sanayisi \u015eubat\u2019ta %8,7 darald\u0131, resesyon sinyali g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. ARS\u2019de sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131, Merval\u2019da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riski art\u0131yor. Enflasyon %15; \u00fclke risk primi 1.900 bp, CDS g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44278","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44278","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44278"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44278\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44278"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44278"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44278"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}