USD\/JPY, ABD verileri (\u00f6zellikle Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 – PCE: t\u00fcketicilerin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 ve fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 izleyen enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) sonras\u0131 9 Nisan\u2019da 158,90 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. Veriler, ABD\u2019de faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini destekledi.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fet PCE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 artt\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek PCE (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) de %0,4 y\u00fckseldi. B\u00f6ylece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015flar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc aya ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,0 ile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 %0,5 artt\u0131; art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131 daha fazla \u00fcr\u00fcn al\u0131nmas\u0131ndan de\u011fil, fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesinden kaynakland\u0131. \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 219 bine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ancak tarihsel olarak h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede.<\/p>\n
ABD GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la: \u00fclke ekonomisinin toplam \u00fcretimi) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi, ancak bu durum Fed politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Piyasa tepkisi, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 Japon yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda destekli tuttu.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte USD\/JPY 158,95 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite, 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama: belirli d\u00f6nem fiyat ortalamas\u0131) 159,12 ve 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n 159,21 seviyelerinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 47 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; bu, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 158,96, 159,10, 159,12, 159,21 ve 159,30 olarak payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Destek 158,83\u2019te izlenirken, bu seviyenin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lma daha fazla geri \u00e7ekilmeye i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu %3,0\u2019da kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde faiz indirimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, dolar\u0131n yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir ve pariteyi resm\u00ee m\u00fcdahaleyi g\u00fcndeme getiren seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. 2024 ilkbahar\u0131nda kur 160\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 ani bir ters harekete kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin s\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler, 160 \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 fiyat) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu strateji, olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mdan fayda sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedeflerken azami zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle (premium: opsiyon i\u00e7in pe\u015fin \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Bu, riski ba\u015ftan belli bir yakla\u015f\u0131md\u0131r ve Japon otoriteleri para birimini desteklerse g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek sert, birka\u00e7 yenlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Parite k\u0131sa vadeli hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda oyalan\u0131rken ve m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fcksekken, sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak da se\u00e7enek olabilir. 158,00 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put, parite yak\u0131n deste\u011fini k\u0131rar ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczeltme yaparsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Yene kar\u015f\u0131 spek\u00fclatif k\u0131sa pozisyonlar (short: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) 2025\u2019te g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz en y\u00fcksek seviyelere yak\u0131n; bu da i\u015flemin kalabal\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve h\u0131zl\u0131 \u201cshort squeeze\u201de (k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n zarar kes\/pozisyon kapama al\u0131mlar\u0131yla fiyat\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 itmesi) a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri ile Japonya\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale tehdidi aras\u0131ndaki gerilim, oynakl\u0131k (volatility: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) odakl\u0131 i\u015flemler i\u00e7in uygun zemin olu\u015fturuyor. \u201cUzun straddle\u201d almak (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem call hem put almak), paritenin hangi y\u00f6ne giderse gitsin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefler. Bu strateji, belirgin bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na do\u011frudan bahis anlam\u0131na gelir ve bu olas\u0131l\u0131k giderek art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
PCE s\u00fcrprizi USD\/JPY\u2019yi 158,90\u2019da diri tuttu: man\u015fet\/\u00e7ekirdek %0,4, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek %3,0. Fed indirimi \u00f6teleniyor, 160 ve m\u00fcdahale riski masada; diren\u00e7 159,30, destek 158,83.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44269","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44269","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44269"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44269\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44269"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44269"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44269"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}