USD\/CAD bu hafta neredeyse %1 geriledi; yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3965\u2019ten Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3800\u2019e indi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Pakistan arabuluculu\u011funda iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sal\u0131 ak\u015fam\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Pakistan Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u015eahbaz \u015eerif, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131 i\u00e7in verdi\u011fi s\u00fcreden k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce derhal ate\u015fkes ilan edildi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Trump daha sonra anla\u015fmay\u0131 Truth Social\u2019da do\u011frulayarak, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 10 maddelik \u00f6nerisini \u201cm\u00fczakere i\u00e7in uygulanabilir bir zemin\u201d olarak niteledi.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Bloomberg Dolar Spot Endeksi \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %1,1\u2019e kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu, ocaktan bu yana en sert g\u00fcnl\u00fck gerileme oldu. ABD dolar\u0131, uzun dolar pozisyonlar\u0131 (dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131nan i\u015flemler) azalt\u0131l\u0131nca 16 b\u00fcy\u00fck para biriminin tamam\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
WTI petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 beklentilerle g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %10\u2019dan fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; oysa petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki gerileme genelde Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lar. Petrol daha sonra 97 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine toparlan\u0131rken, DXY (ABD dolar endeksi) 99 civar\u0131nda dengelendi.<\/p>\n
Faiz beklentileri de de\u011fi\u015fti: Petrol yeniden 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inerken, vadeli i\u015flemler (gelecekteki fiyat beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) 2026\u2019da en az bir faiz indirimi fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. FOMC\u2019nin (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 politika kurulu) mart toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenlerle faiz indirimi bekleyenler aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Grafiklerde USD\/CAD 1,3900 ve 1,3850 seviyelerinin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Saatlik RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 30\u2019un alt\u0131na inip ard\u0131ndan 40\u2019lar\u0131n ortas\u0131na toparland\u0131. ABD mart T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) verisi cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; daha zay\u0131f bir sonu\u00e7 1,3750\u20131,3700 b\u00f6lgesini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,3900 \u00fczerinden sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u015fimdilik 1,3800 \u00e7evresinde duraksam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD mart T\u00dcFE verisi beklentiden biraz daha s\u0131cak geldi; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %0,4 artt\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n daha fazla gerilemesini engelledi. Ate\u015fkes haberiyle dolar\u0131 satmaktan elde edilen h\u0131zl\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 muhtemelen al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hafta sonu \u0130slamabad g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ard\u0131ndan ate\u015fkesin s\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fi belirsizli\u011fini korurken, ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 ucuzlatt\u0131. USD\/CAD\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n %10\u2019un \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k %7,5\u2019e indi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu, \u015fubatta gerilim t\u0131rmanmadan \u00f6nceki seviyelere benzer. Bu durum, straddle veya strangle (iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyen, ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla kurulan opsiyon stratejileri) almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratabilir; y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, enflasyon verisi sonras\u0131 ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz indirimi beklentilerini h\u0131zla geri \u00e7ekti. Fed funds vadeli i\u015flemleri (politika faizine ili\u015fkin piyasa beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) y\u0131l sonuna kadar indirim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine %85\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; \u015fimdi olas\u0131l\u0131k daha \u00e7ok %50-%50\u2019ye yak\u0131n. Fed\u2019in izleyece\u011fi yolun yeniden belirsizle\u015fmesi, \u015fimdilik ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol piyasas\u0131 da tabloyu karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130lk %10\u2019luk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ani bir tepkiydi. WTI daha sonra varil ba\u015f\u0131na 97 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde dengelendi; son EIA raporu (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin verileri) ABD stoklar\u0131nda beklenmedik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131 destekliyor. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k iki ucu keskin b\u0131\u00e7ak: Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekler, ancak k\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015felerini de besleyerek ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n
2025 sonundaki pozisyon verileri (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n hangi y\u00f6nde ne kadar i\u015flem ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren g\u00f6stergeler), uzun ABD dolar\u0131 i\u015flemlerinin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kalabal\u0131k oldu\u011funu ortaya koyuyordu; bu da bu haftaki sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n sertli\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Spek\u00fclatif uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n (k\u0131sa vadeli ama\u00e7la ta\u015f\u0131nan y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemlerin) \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131 temizlenmi\u015f olsa da piyasa \u015fimdi yeni bir tetikleyici bekliyor. Kritik nokta, ate\u015fkesin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta s\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fi.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdilik parite, k\u0131r\u0131lgan bar\u0131\u015f iyimserli\u011fi ile inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 1,3750 seviyesi \u00f6nemli destek olarak izlenirken, jeopolitik gerilimin yeniden artmas\u0131 veya Fed\u2019den daha \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yatk\u0131n) mesajlar gelmesi pariteyi kolayca 1,3900\u2019a geri ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Riskin net tan\u0131mland\u0131\u011f\u0131 opsiyon spreadleri (birden fazla opsiyonla kurulan, maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan stratejiler) daha net bir y\u00f6n olu\u015fana kadar daha temkinli bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CAD haftay\u0131 %1\u2019e yak\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,3800\u2019e indi. \u0130ran-ABD ate\u015fkesi dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tetiklerken, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin s\u0131cak gelmesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc frenledi. Oynakl\u0131k \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc; 1,3750 destek, 1,3900 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44268","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44268"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44268\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44268"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44268"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44268"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}