\u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc L\u00fcbnan ile \u201cen k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede\u201d do\u011frudan m\u00fczakerelerin ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 talimat\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Netanyahu, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve \u0130srail ile L\u00fcbnan aras\u0131nda resm\u00ee bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l ili\u015fkilerin kurulmas\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Haber ilk olarak Axios muhabiri Barak Ravid taraf\u0131ndan X\u2019te payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte arabulucular \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen dolayl\u0131 temaslardan uzakla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Hizbullah, \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan destekleniyor; hem silahl\u0131 bir yap\u0131ya hem de L\u00fcbnan siyasetinde etkili bir role sahip. Silahs\u0131zland\u0131rmay\u0131 merkeze alan bir plan\u0131n, Hizbullah ve gruba destek veren \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n siyasi sistemi par\u00e7al\u0131; bu durum ilerlemeyi yava\u015flatabilir veya durdurabilir. Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n hem silahl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 hem de siyasi parti gibi hareket etmesi ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131, uzla\u015f\u0131labilecek alan\u0131 daraltabilir.<\/p>\n
Do\u011frudan m\u00fczakere duyurusu belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da \u201coynakl\u0131\u011fa dayal\u0131 i\u015flemler\u201d i\u00e7in uygun bir zemin yarat\u0131yor. (Oynakl\u0131k: fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ve s\u0131k dalgalanmas\u0131; oynakl\u0131\u011fa dayal\u0131 i\u015flem: fiyat y\u00f6n\u00fcnden \u00e7ok dalga boyuna oynayan strateji.) Ba\u015fl\u0131k ilk anda piyasalar\u0131 sakinle\u015ftirip jeopolitik risk primini (risk primi: belirsizlik artt\u0131k\u00e7a yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n talep etti\u011fi ek getiri) azaltabilir; ancak bu sakinlik ge\u00e7ici olabilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda man\u015fetlere ba\u011fl\u0131 sert fiyat hareketleri g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir; bu nedenle \u201copsiyon\u201d \u00fczerinden oynakl\u0131k pozisyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. (Opsiyon: belirli bir tarihe kadar, belirli fiyattan al\u0131m ya da sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme.)<\/p>\n
2024 ve 2025 boyunca petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel gerilimlere ne kadar duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; bu haber Brent petrol\u00fcnde (Brent: uluslararas\u0131 referans petrol fiyat\u0131) ilk anda sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilir. Ancak Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n fiilen silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7ok zor bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 oldu\u011fundan, olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme \u201cal\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. (Al\u0131m opsiyonu\/call: fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 potansiyeli olan opsiyon.) G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde petrol, k\u00fcresel stoklar s\u0131k\u0131 kal\u0131rken (stoklar\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 olmas\u0131: arz\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, tamponun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131) ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki zirvelere h\u0131zla d\u00f6nebilir.<\/p>\n
\u015e\u00fcphecili\u011fin temelinde, sahadaki k\u00f6kl\u00fc ger\u00e7eklerin de\u011fi\u015fmemesi var. Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n siyasi g\u00fcc\u00fc ve 100 bini a\u015fabilece\u011fi belirtilen m\u00fchimmat kapasitesi, silahs\u0131zlanma hedefini pratikten \u00e7ok temenniye yakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki siyasi t\u0131kanma ve 2023\u2019te enflasyonun y\u00fczde 190\u2019\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131, b\u00f6yle bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 g\u00fcvenilir bi\u00e7imde uygulayabilecek tek bir otorite bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bu tablo, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d varl\u0131klar\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor: alt\u0131n ve ABD dolar\u0131 gibi. (G\u00fcvenli liman: risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda genelde de\u011ferini daha iyi koruyan varl\u0131k.) M\u00fczakerelerin aksad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretler, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha az riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) tetikleyebilir; bu da alt\u0131n ve dolar\u0131 desteklerken hisse senetleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. \u201cE\u015fle\u015ftirilmi\u015f i\u015flem\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla, \u00f6rne\u011fin VIX vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon al\u0131p savunma sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hisselerinde k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmak, olas\u0131 dalgalanmaya kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli bir konumlama olabilir. (VIX: ABD borsas\u0131 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks; vadeli kontrat: gelecekte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcnden sabitleyen s\u00f6zle\u015fme; uzun pozisyon: y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle tutulan pozisyon; sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon; opsiyon satmak: prim geliri i\u00e7in risk \u00fcstlenmek.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: Netanyahu, L\u00fcbnan\u2019la do\u011frudan m\u00fczakereler i\u00e7in talimat verdi. G\u00fcndem Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve normalle\u015fme. Man\u015fet riski art\u0131yor; Brent, alt\u0131n, dolar ve opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44266","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44266"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44266\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44266"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44266"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44266"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}