ABD, 4 haftal\u0131k Hazine bonosu (Treasury bill) ihalesi d\u00fczenledi. \u0130hale faizi (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n kabul etti\u011fi y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri) \u00f6nceki sat\u0131\u015ftaki %3,62\u2019den %3,56\u2019ya geriledi.<\/p>\n
4 haftal\u0131k Hazine bonosu, yakla\u015f\u0131k bir ay vadeli k\u0131sa vadeli devlet bor\u00e7lanma arac\u0131d\u0131r. A\u00e7\u0131klanan de\u011fi\u015fim, ihaledeki getiride 0,06 puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
4 haftal\u0131k bono ihalesindeki bu geri \u00e7ekilme, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201da y\u00f6neldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yak\u0131n vadeli ekonomi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve devlet borcunun g\u00fcvenli\u011fi i\u00e7in daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getiriye raz\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterir. Ge\u00e7en haftaki Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls: ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde ayl\u0131k istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren veri) raporunda istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 180 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 95 bin gelmesi, bu temkinli duru\u015fu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, piyasan\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimini daha erken fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 2025 ortas\u0131nda ise g\u00fcndem, hizmet enflasyonunun (\u00f6zellikle kira, sa\u011fl\u0131k, e\u011fitim gibi hizmet fiyatlar\u0131) y\u00fcksek seyri nedeniyle faizlerin \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131\u201dyd\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (core CPI: enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %2,8\u2019e gerilemesiyle Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmesi (faiz indirimi gibi ad\u0131mlar) y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklenti g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ayn\u0131 zamanda k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alma sinyali. \u00d6rne\u011fin SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri (SOFR futures: ABD\u2019de gecelik teminatl\u0131 fonlama faizine dayal\u0131 faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir; Fed yaz aylar\u0131na kadar hedef faizini indirirse bu t\u00fcr i\u015flemler kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Bu, 2025\u2019teki ortam\u0131n tersine; o d\u00f6nemde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: fiyat\/riske kar\u015f\u0131 dengeleme i\u015flemi) daha \u00f6ndeydi.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa vadesinin (yield curve: farkl\u0131 vadelerde tahvil faizlerinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu yap\u0131) Fed\u2019in ad\u0131mlar\u0131na \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti\u011fi benzer \u00f6rnekler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; 2019 yaz\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nem buna \u00f6rnek. Tahvil piyasas\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman erken sinyal verir; bu uyar\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelmek maliyetli olabilir. Bu, b\u00fcy\u00fck ve daha bilgili yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n (smart money) pozisyon almaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD 4 haftal\u0131k Hazine bonosu ihalesinde faiz %3,62\u2019den %3,56\u2019ya indi. Piyasa \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201da ka\u00e7\u0131yor; zay\u0131f istihdam sonras\u0131 Fed\u2019in daha erken faiz indirimi beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor, tahvil sinyal veriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44265","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44265","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44265"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44265\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44265"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44265"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44265"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}