Avrupa faiz piyasalar\u0131, ge\u00e7ici ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 2026 sonuna y\u00f6nelik politika faizi beklentilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Hareket, Avrupa piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rken ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131), BoE (\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131) ve SNB (\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131) i\u00e7in Aral\u0131k 2026 vadeli faiz kontratlar\u0131nda (futures\/vadeli i\u015flemler: gelecekteki faiz seviyesine dair piyasa beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu d\u00fczeltmeye ra\u011fmen, vadeli i\u015flemlerdeki fiyatlama y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131 seviyelerinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Fark BoE i\u00e7in 80 baz puana (bp: baz puan; 1 bp = y\u00fczde puan\u0131n 0,01\u2019i) kadar, ECB i\u00e7inse 50 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re taraf\u0131ndaki fiyatlama, y\u0131l sonuna kadar faizlerin s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Faiz beklentilerinin, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 politika hedefleriyle uyumsuz oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
ECB i\u00e7inde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; baz\u0131 \u00fcyeler, \u201cikinci tur etkiler\u201d (ilk \u015fokun ard\u0131ndan \u00fccret ve fiyatlara yay\u0131lan kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131) ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmadan \u00f6nce ad\u0131m at\u0131labilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Politika duru\u015flar\u0131 farkl\u0131 olsa da, BoE ve ECB i\u00e7in fiyatlama ate\u015fkes haberiyle neredeyse ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geriledi.<\/p>\n
Bu i\u00e7erik bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan incelendi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin ard\u0131ndan Avrupa faiz piyasalar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir uyumsuzluk g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Vadeli piyasalar, ekonomik aktivitede yava\u015flama i\u015faretlerini g\u00f6rmezden gelerek ECB, BoE ve SNB i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 fazla say\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu \u201c\u015fahinlik\u201d (hawkish: s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131, yani faiz art\u0131rma e\u011filimini ifade eder) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde 2025\u2019teki sert s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n etkisi gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasa, yakla\u015f\u0131k 80 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 varsay\u0131yor; bu y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Son veriler, 2026 1. \u00e7eyrekte \u0130ngiltere GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin (GDP: Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la) %0,1 ile zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve mart perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedik \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi; bu da t\u00fcketicinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, bu agresif faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 patikas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlar de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131nda da benzer bir tablo var; 50 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatlan\u0131yor. Bu, mart ay\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP enflasyonunun (HICP: uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) %2,1\u2019e gerilemesini ve bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131n (PMI: sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder) 49,8\u2019e inmesini yeterince yans\u0131tm\u0131yor; bu seviye ekonomide hafif daralma sinyali veriyor. ECB i\u00e7indeki b\u00f6l\u00fcnme, zay\u0131f veriler geldik\u00e7e daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (dovish: gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131, yani faiz indirme\/artan faizlere kar\u015f\u0131 temkin) \u00fcyelerin etkisinin artabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
En net hatal\u0131 fiyatlama \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; piyasa bu y\u0131l faizlerin s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Kom\u015fu Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ve \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131n (CHF) son d\u00f6nemde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, SNB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerek\u00e7esi var; hatta faiz indirimi se\u00e7ene\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek zorunda kalabilir. \u0130svi\u00e7re faizlerinin yatay kalmas\u0131 veya d\u00fc\u015fmesi senaryosunda risk-getiri dengesi cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, faiz swaplar\u0131na (interest rate swap: bir taraf\u0131n sabit faiz, di\u011fer taraf\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6dedi\u011fi faiz takas\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) girerek sabit faizi \u201calma\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon alabilir; yani de\u011fi\u015fken faizin piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi kadar y\u00fckselmeyece\u011fine oynayabilir. Bu, \u00f6zellikle daha uzun vadeli BoE ve ECB s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde SNB faiz indirimlerinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilecek opsiyonlar (options: belirli bir tarihte\/ vadede belirli fiyattan alma-satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak da etkili bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ate\u015fkes ve sert enerji d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Avrupa faizlerini geriletti; ancak vadeli kontratlar h\u00e2l\u00e2 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u015fahin. BoE\u2019de 80bp, ECB\u2019de 50bp s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatlan\u0131yor; SNB s\u0131f\u0131r \u00fcst\u00fc beklentisi hatal\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44264","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44264"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44264\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}