Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.750 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn 4.800 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Fiyat, ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi etraf\u0131ndaki gerilimi izleyen piyasalar nedeniyle dar bir bantta kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Kalibaf, \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ate\u015fkesin \u00fc\u00e7 maddesinin ihlal edildi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran, L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkes kapsam\u0131nda oldu\u011funu savunurken ABD ve \u0130srail bunun ge\u00e7erli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Tahran, sald\u0131r\u0131lar s\u00fcrerse anla\u015fmadan \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ilk turu Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Pakistan\u2019da yap\u0131lacak. Ama\u00e7 kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ate\u015fkes ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131. Donald Trump, \u201cGER\u00c7EK B\u0130R ANLA\u015eMA\u201dya uyum sa\u011flanana kadar ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin \u201c\u0130ran\u2019da ve \u0130ran \u00e7evresinde\u201d kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 toparland\u0131. Bu durum enflasyon endi\u015felerini g\u00fcndemde tutarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Mart toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131nda \u201c\u00e7o\u011fu kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131\u201d, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma risklerinin i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 (istihdam taraf\u0131n\u0131) zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fini ve daha fazla faiz indirimini destekleyebilece\u011fini belirtirken; \u201cbir\u00e7o\u011fu\u201d daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu y\u00fcksek tutup faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek PCE (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi) \u015eubat\u2019ta ayl\u0131k %0,4 artt\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k oran %3,1\u2019den %3,0\u2019a indi. 4. \u00e7eyrek GSYH (ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la) verisi %0,7\u2019den %0,5\u2019e revize edildi. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) ayl\u0131k %0,9 gelmesi bekleniyor (\u00f6nceki %0,3), y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun ise %2,4\u2019ten %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde XAU\/USD, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA; belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ortalama fiyat\u0131) 4.673,84 dolar \u00fczerindeyken 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n 4.914,57 dolar alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 49,33, ADX (trend g\u00fcc\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi) 29,46 seviyesinde. 4.914,57 dolar \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015f yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc, 4.673,84 dolar alt\u0131na ini\u015f ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi \u00fczerindeki mevcut restle\u015fme, Cumartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler \u00f6ncesinde alt\u0131n\u0131n dar bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve piyasan\u0131n tetikte oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6neme i\u015faret ediyor. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 itebilirken, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bu \u201ciki sonu\u00e7tan biri\u201d durumu, k\u0131sa vadede y\u00f6n tahminine dayal\u0131 i\u015flemleri riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlikte, en uygun yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) i\u015flem yapmak oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. CBOE Alt\u0131n Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (GVZ; alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) son bir haftada 15,2\u2019den 17,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu, gerginli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ancak opsiyon primleri (opsiyonun sat\u0131n alma bedeli) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 pahal\u0131 de\u011fil. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketten her iki y\u00f6nde de kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen uzun straddle veya strangle gibi stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. (Straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak. Strangle: ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak.)<\/p>\n
Riskin daha \u00e7ok sert y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcne e\u011fik oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD T\u00dcFE verisinin enflasyonun %3,3\u2019e h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. Buna ek olarak WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) bu hafta varil ba\u015f\u0131na 112 dolar seviyesini yeniden a\u015ft\u0131. Bu da Fed \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. 4.950 dolar \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip alt\u0131n al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonun (open interest; kapat\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f s\u00f6zle\u015fme say\u0131s\u0131) belirgin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan Pakistan\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden beklenmedik \u015fekilde olumlu haber gelmesi, alt\u0131n\u0131n jeopolitik risk primini (siyasi\/askeri riskler nedeniyle fiyata eklenen pay) h\u0131zla eritebilir. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n teyit edilmesi, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tetikleyici olur ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama deste\u011fi olan 4.674 dolar civar\u0131 hedefe girebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, korunma amac\u0131yla ya da kal\u0131c\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f ihtimaline y\u00f6nelik bir beklentiyle sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
2022 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki fiyat hareketi unutulmamal\u0131: jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131nda ani ve sert s\u0131\u00e7ramalar yaratm\u0131\u015f, bu hareketleri \u00f6nceden pozisyon almadan yakalamak zor olmu\u015ftu. Bu \u00f6rnek, bir haber d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fckten sonra teyit beklemenin ge\u00e7 kalmak anlam\u0131na gelebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131, riski ba\u015ftan tan\u0131mlarken ate\u015fkesin gidi\u015fat\u0131 veya enflasyon verisinin tetikleyebilece\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc harekete maruz kalma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik: XAU\/USD 4.750$\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131, ate\u015fkes gerilimi ve Cumartesi Pakistan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri izleniyor. Petrol-enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 Fed\u2019i zorluyor; GVZ y\u00fckseldi. Straddle\/strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; 4.914$ \u00fcst\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f, 4.674$ alt\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44263","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44263"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44263\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44263"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44263"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44263"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}