ABD enflasyonu, ABD Ekonomik Analiz B\u00fcrosu\u2019na g\u00f6re Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) Fiyat Endeksi ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, \u015fubatta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8\u2019de de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Bu veri piyasa beklentileriyle uyumlu geldi.<\/p>\n
Ayl\u0131k bazda PCE Fiyat Endeksi %0,4 artt\u0131; bu da tahminlerle ayn\u0131 seviyede. G\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 tutularak hesaplanan \u00e7ekirdek PCE Fiyat Endeksi (enflasyonun ana e\u011filimini g\u00f6steren \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm) ocakta %3,1 iken \u015fubatta y\u0131ll\u0131k %3\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n
Ki\u015fisel Gelir ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 d\u00fc\u015ferken, Ki\u015fisel Harcamalar %0,5 artt\u0131. Rapor, piyasalarda belirgin bir harekete yol a\u00e7mad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Haberin yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY \u2013 dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimle 98,96 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131ndaki verilere geri bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, piyasan\u0131n enflasyonda d\u00fczenli bir gerileme beklentisiyle konumland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. \u015eubat 2025 raporunda \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin %3\u2019e gerilemesi, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutarak talebi so\u011futma) i\u015fe yarad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu da y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru faiz indirimi beklentilerini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak bu istikrar ge\u00e7ici kald\u0131. Bug\u00fcn biliyoruz ki 2025 yaz\u0131 boyunca enerji maliyetlerindeki yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015f ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (maa\u015flar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesiyle maliyetlerin artmas\u0131) s\u00fcrmesi, \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019yi d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte %3,4\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu geli\u015fme enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini (dezenflasyon) bozdu ve faiz piyasalar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir yeniden fiyatlamaya neden oldu.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle Fed yaln\u0131zca beklemeye ge\u00e7mekle kalmad\u0131; Eyl\u00fcl 2025\u2019te 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) son bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha yapt\u0131. Bu ad\u0131m, gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc (faiz indirim s\u00fcreci) bekleyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131. Bu tablo, enflasyon yava\u015fl\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse bile alttaki bask\u0131lar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde geri d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Fed, veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek ve erken \u201czafer\u201d ilan etmekten ka\u00e7\u0131nacak.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu, faizlerin sabit kalmas\u0131na veya yava\u015f y\u00fckselmesine oynayan se\u00e7eneklerin (opsiyon \u2013 belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc faiz indirimi beklentisi i\u00e7erenlere g\u00f6re daha temkinli oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. K\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (future \u2013 ileri tarihli standart s\u00f6zle\u015fme) beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi olan ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility \u2013 opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan dalgalanma beklentisi) 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda gerilese de be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k 95 seviyesinde. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu y\u00fcksek primden (opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7erdi\u011fi ek bedel) yararlanmak ve k\u0131sa vadede politika faizinde indirim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in Haziran 2026 SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde put satmay\u0131 (put opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u2013 fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fck almak) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
2025 raporunda harcamalar\u0131n artarken gelirin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, tasarruflara dayanma sinyaliydi. Bu e\u011filim s\u00fcrd\u00fc; ulusal ki\u015fisel tasarruf oran\u0131 2024 sonundaki %4,1\u2019den ge\u00e7en ay itibar\u0131yla %2,7 ile yeni dip seviyeye indi. Bu, t\u00fcketicinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; zorunlu olmayan t\u00fcketim (consumer discretionary \u2013 iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 harcamalara ba\u011fl\u0131 sekt\u00f6r) hisselerine ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (derivative \u2013 de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fme) daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de PCE enflasyonu \u015fubatta %2,8\u2019de sabit, \u00e7ekirdek %3\u2019e indi: Fed\u2019e rahatlama k\u0131sa s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Enerji\/\u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131yla \u00e7ekirdek %3,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de art\u0131\u015f geldi; indirim fiyatlamalar\u0131 bozuldu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44255","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44255","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44255"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44255\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}