ABD\u2019de ilk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131, 4 Nisan\u2019da sona eren haftada 219 bin oldu. Bir \u00f6nceki hafta 203 bin seviyesindeydi (202 binden revize edildi). ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Per\u015fembe yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rapora g\u00f6re veri, 210 binlik beklentinin \u00fczerinde geldi.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k hareketli ortalama (k\u0131sa vadeli dalgalanmalar\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in son 4 haftan\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) 1,5 bin artarak 209,5 bine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (\u00f6nceki hafta 208 bin; revize). Devam eden ba\u015fvurular (i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 almaya devam edenlerin say\u0131s\u0131) 28 Mart\u2019ta sona eren haftada 38 bin azalarak 1,794 milyona geriledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) 100,00 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Jeopolitik belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken dolar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geriledi. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri ekonominin nabz\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r ve para birimi de\u011ferlerini etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130stihdam seviyesi t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi etkiler. S\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 (i\u015f\u00e7i bulman\u0131n zor oldu\u011fu ortam) \u00fccretleri yukar\u0131 itebilir. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 enflasyonu (fiyatlar\u0131n genel art\u0131\u015f\u0131) besleyebilir; bu nedenle merkez bankalar\u0131 faiz kararlar\u0131 al\u0131rken bunu yak\u0131ndan izler.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) iki hedefi vard\u0131r: en y\u00fcksek istihdam ve fiyat istikrar\u0131. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) ise a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak enflasyona odaklan\u0131r. Her ikisi de enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ve genel ekonomik durumu de\u011ferlendirirken i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 dikkate al\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 219 bine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekici; hem beklentileri hem de \u00f6nceki haftay\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. Bu durum, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir so\u011fumaya i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n
Art\u0131\u015f \u00f6nemli olsa da ba\u015fvurular\u0131n aylard\u0131r g\u00f6rece dar bir bantta dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Daha \u00f6nemlisi, Mart verileri ortalama saatlik kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n (\u00fccretlerin saatlik bazda ortalamas\u0131) y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,1 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu seviye, Fed\u2019in enflasyona odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00dccret bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi, ekonominin h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde so\u011fudu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fed, istihdam taraf\u0131n\u0131n yumu\u015famas\u0131 ile \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; bu da bir sonraki ad\u0131m konusunda belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. Bu tablo, agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 (faizi h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert y\u00fckseltme) zora sokarken, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir faiz indirimi (faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle faizin y\u00f6n\u00fcne net bir tahminle kurulan i\u015flemler \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fcksek risk ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik nedeniyle, faiz ve d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, fiyat hareketlerinden yararlanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde straddle veya strangle almak. Straddle\/strangle, opsiyon stratejileridir; y\u00f6n tahmininden \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket bekleyenler i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r ve piyasa yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sert hareket ederse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin kritik 100,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131, dolar aleyhine de\u011fi\u015fen alg\u0131y\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. 2022\u2019deki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar d\u00f6neminin ard\u0131ndan, sonraki veriler ABD ekonomisinde yava\u015flamay\u0131 do\u011frularsa bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k h\u0131zlanabilir. Bu nedenle, merkez bankas\u0131 daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli) kalan \u00fclke para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolarda sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz veri: ABD\u2019de ilk i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 219 bine \u00e7\u0131karak 210 bin beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. DXY 100\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda. Fed\u2019de faiz belirsizli\u011fi ve oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44254","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44254"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44254\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44254"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}