ABD\u2019nin gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131 (GSYH: ekonomide \u00fcretilen toplam mal ve hizmetlerin de\u011feri) d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (\u00e7eyrek verisinin 12 aya uyarlanm\u0131\u015f hali) %0,5 artt\u0131. Beklenti %0,7 idi.<\/p>\n
Veri, \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in tahmin edilenden daha zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor. Kaynak bilgide b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi etkileyen unsurlara (t\u00fcketim, yat\u0131r\u0131m, kamu harcamalar\u0131, d\u0131\u015f ticaret gibi) dair ayr\u0131nt\u0131 yer almad\u0131.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek 2025 i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan %0,5\u2019lik y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme, ekonomide ivme kayb\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fruluyor. Verinin %0,7 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) politika faizinde (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasa faizlerini etkileyen ana faiz oran\u0131) indirime daha erken gidebilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 Fed\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na ve enflasyon verilerine (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) kayacak.<\/p>\n
Piyasada dalgalanman\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve s\u0131k y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi) artmas\u0131 beklenebilir. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: S&P 500 opsiyonlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k 14 seviyesinde sakin seyrediyordu; yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flem yapanlar, olas\u0131 dalgalanmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya faydalanmak i\u00e7in VIX vadeli i\u015flemlerini (futures: ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) ya da al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasas\u0131nda tablo kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. Faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler yak\u0131ndan izlenebilir. Daha yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz olsa da, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz beklentisi de\u011ferlemeleri (\u015firketlerin piyasa de\u011ferinin hesaplanmas\u0131) \u00f6zellikle teknoloji ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisselerinde destekleyebilir. Nasdaq 100 (NDX: Nasdaq 100 endeksi) gibi endekslerde opsiyonlarla i\u015flem kurulabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin put spread (sat\u0131m opsiyonu stratejisi: iki farkl\u0131 fiyat seviyesinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p satarak riski ve maliyeti dengeleme) ile a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flanabilir.<\/p>\n
En do\u011frudan etki faiz \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Y\u0131l ortas\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatlanabilir. 2024 sonlar\u0131nda Fed\u2019in \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d sinyali verdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemde tahvillerde h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerine (Treasury note futures: ABD devlet tahvili vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) al\u0131m\u0131n artmas\u0131, tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltip getirileri (yield: tahvilin faizi\/geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir. Haber sonras\u0131 sabah i\u015flemlerinde 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi %3,9\u2019a geriledi.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131 da etkiler. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz beklentisi genelde para birimini zay\u0131flat\u0131r; bu nedenle ABD dolar\u0131nda bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar euro veya yen gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolarda k\u0131sa pozisyon (short: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem) almay\u0131, d\u00f6viz vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri veya d\u00f6viz izleyen borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 (ETF: bir endeksi\/varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 takip eden fonda borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren pay) \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlarla de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcrpriz zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme: ABD GSYH 4\u00c7\u2019te y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %0,5 ile %0,7 beklentiyi ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131. Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine erken gidebilece\u011fi fiyatlan\u0131yor; tahvil getirileri d\u00fc\u015ferken dolar bask\u0131, VIX ve hisse oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44248","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44248","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44248"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44248\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}