ABD\u2019de ki\u015fisel gelir \u015eubat\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Beklenti %0,3 art\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7, beklentinin 0,4 y\u00fczde puan alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu, gelirin Ocak\u2019a g\u00f6re geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eubat\u2019ta ki\u015fisel gelirin, %0,3 art\u0131\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131n %0,1 d\u00fc\u015fmesi, t\u00fcketicinin finansal durumunda zay\u0131flama olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, hanelerin harcama g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyreklerde \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 (\u015firketlerin elde etti\u011fi net kazan\u00e7) bask\u0131layabilir. Bu veri, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan daha iyimser ekonomik tabloyla \u00e7eli\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu gelir verisi, ge\u00e7en haftaki Mart perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla (ma\u011faza ve online kanallarda yap\u0131lan toplam sat\u0131\u015flar) ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde; perakende sat\u0131\u015flar da beklentiyi ka\u00e7\u0131rarak %0,4 gerilemi\u015fti. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyon) son veride y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %2,9\u2019a gerilemesiyle, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz politikas\u0131na kay\u0131yor. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlar\u0131ndan faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge), Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi ihtimalini %60 g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce %35\u2019ti.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, SPX gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde opsiyonlarla (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma art\u0131rmak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Put spread (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan, iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonunun birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 strateji) almak, t\u00fcketimde yava\u015flaman\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi olas\u0131 piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir korunma sa\u011flayabilir. Ayr\u0131ca VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 endeksi \u00fczerine y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131nan opsiyon) da de\u011ferlendirilebilir; bu t\u00fcr s\u00fcrpriz veriler \u00e7o\u011fu zaman oynakl\u0131kta art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7er.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2025\u2019in ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yava\u015flaman\u0131n sonraki haftalarda %5\u2019lik piyasa d\u00fczeltmesini (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) \u00f6nceledi\u011fi d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nemde ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131nan pozisyon) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans g\u00f6stermi\u015fti; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli limana y\u00f6nelmesiyle getiriler (tahvil faizi) d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Benzer bir dinamik yeniden olu\u015fabilir. Bu nedenle 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (ZN) uzun pozisyon, k\u0131sa vadeli taktik bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD\u2019de \u015eubat ki\u015fisel gelir %0,1 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; %0,3 art\u0131\u015f beklentisi bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. T\u00fcketimde yava\u015flama sinyali Fed indirimi beklentisini art\u0131r\u0131yor; SPX\u2019te korunma, VIX opsiyonu ve ZN uzun \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44247","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44247","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44247"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44247\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44247"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44247"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44247"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}