ABD Dolar\u0131, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi ve 0,7870\u2019ten tepki ald\u0131ktan sonra 0,7900 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019daki ate\u015fkesin zorlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma iste\u011fi zay\u0131f seyretti; bu da ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talebi destekledi.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkes a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatt\u0131. \u0130ran, \u0130srail\u2019in 180\u2019den fazla ki\u015finin \u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc L\u00fcbnan sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131yla teklifin baz\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerini ihlal etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail ve ABD, L\u00fcbnan\u2019da Hizbullah\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen operasyonlar\u0131n anla\u015fma kapsam\u0131nda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump, Tahran\u2019\u0131n uymamas\u0131 halinde ek ad\u0131mlar at\u0131labilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
ABD ve \u0130ran, Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Pakistan\u2019da yap\u0131lacak bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri i\u00e7in heyet g\u00f6ndereceklerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesiyle piyasalar temkinli kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de, son ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 dengeli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ortaya koydu. Faiz indirimleri h\u00e2l\u00e2 masada; ancak enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) uzun s\u00fcre %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 halinde baz\u0131 yetkililer daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika (faizlerin daha y\u00fcksek tutulmas\u0131) ihtimalini de konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde ABD PCE Fiyat Endeksi (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Bu verinin ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi, enflasyonun en yayg\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) gelecek. T\u00dcFE, sava\u015f\u0131n etkisini yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen mart verilerini g\u00f6sterecek.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de mart i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %3\u2019te kald\u0131. \u0130svi\u00e7re veri takvimi bu hafta genel olarak sakindi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019daki ate\u015fkesin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: S&P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) taraf\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; endeks 25\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu seviyeler, 2025 sonundaki bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc endi\u015felerinden beri kal\u0131c\u0131 olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. B\u00f6yle bir ortamda, vadeli i\u015flemlerde (futures: ileri tarihli standart s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almak yerine, riskin ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu opsiyonlar (options: belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) daha temkinli bir tercih olabilir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 k\u00fcresel enerji a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik. T\u00fcrev piyasalar (derivatives: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler) bu riski fiyatl\u0131yor. \u0130lk haberle birlikte May\u0131s vadeli WTI ham petrol kontratlar\u0131 (ABD tipi ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemi) yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 y\u00fckseldi; bu hareket 2022 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 (tedarik kesintilerinin fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ratmas\u0131) hat\u0131rlatt\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, tedarik zincirini etkileyebilecek b\u00fcy\u00fcme ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynamak i\u00e7in petrolde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD T\u00dcFE verisi bir sonraki kritik e\u015fik. Piyasalar enflasyon verisine \u00e7ok duyarl\u0131. Piyasa beklentisi man\u015fet enflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,6 gelmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde; bu da enflasyonun \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini) teyit ederek Fed\u2019in faiz indirim s\u00fcrecini zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Verinin ard\u0131ndan beklenen sert fiyat hareketine, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan haz\u0131rl\u0131k i\u00e7in; endeks ETF\u2019leri (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fonlar) \u00fczerinde straddle veya strangle stratejileri (her iki y\u00f6nde opsiyon alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyen opsiyon kombinasyonlar\u0131) kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, hem g\u00fcvenli liman (kriz d\u00f6neminde talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) ak\u0131mlar\u0131ndan hem de Fed\u2019in daha \u015fahin kalma ihtimalinden (hawkish: faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli) destek buluyor. USD\/CHF paritesinde bu durum, Frang\u2019\u0131n da g\u00fcvenli liman olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. USD\/CHF\u2019te al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi s\u00fcrerse veya ABD enflasyonu beklentiyi a\u015farsa s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da k\u0131r\u0131lgan ate\u015fkes ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u015foku risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bast\u0131rd\u0131: USD\/CHF 0,7900 \u00fcst\u00fcnde g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Fed tutanaklar\u0131 temkinli, g\u00f6zler PCE-T\u00dcFE\u2019de. VIX 25+; opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44239","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44239"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44239\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44239"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44239"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44239"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}