ING, Polonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Narodowy Bank Polski – NBP) politika faizini (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasaya y\u00f6n veren ana faizi) daha uzun bir s\u00fcre %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. ING, bu toplant\u0131da yeni bir tahmin raporu (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini g\u00fcncelledi\u011fi rapor) olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve toplant\u0131n\u0131n mart ay\u0131ndaki faiz indiriminden sonraki ilk toplant\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtirken, dikkatin Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2011\u0130ran ate\u015fkes a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasalar yakla\u015f\u0131k bir bu\u00e7uk faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisini fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. ING\u2019ye g\u00f6re bir y\u0131ll\u0131k vadede fiyatlama 20 baz puan\u0131n (bp; y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri, 0,01) alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor; bu da Orta ve Do\u011fu Avrupa (CEE) b\u00f6lgesinde en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye.<\/p>\n
ING, akaryak\u0131t piyasas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik devlet ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u201ctolerans band\u0131\u201d (hedef etraf\u0131nda izin verilen sapma aral\u0131\u011f\u0131) i\u00e7inde tutmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini bildirdi. Banka, faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
EUR\/PLN, bir g\u00fcnde son bir y\u0131l\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydederek \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelerden gelen y\u00fckseli\u015fin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. ING, paritenin (iki para biriminin kuru) ve b\u00f6lgenin h\u00e2l\u00e2 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak jeopolitik haberlerle hareket etti\u011fini, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) destekleyici kalsa ve ate\u015fkes s\u00fcrse bile 4,220 alt\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn zaman alabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen daha net toparlanmaya k\u0131yasla farkl\u0131 bir i\u015flem ortam\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Y\u00fcksek faizlerin zlotiyi desteklemesi ile jeopolitik belirsizliklerin yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) artabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/PLN \u201cstraddle\u201d (opsiyon stratejisi; ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte al\u0131n\u0131r, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu sayede \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kurun iki y\u00f6nden birinde sert hareket etmesi durumunda kazan\u00e7 hedeflenir.<\/p>\n
Polonya ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 (iki b\u00f6lgenin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131) da \u015fimdi 2025\u2019teki durgun d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re daha cazip. Bu durum, vadeli i\u015flemlerde (forward; bug\u00fcnden ileri bir tarihte yap\u0131lacak kurdan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) PLN \u201calmak\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki i\u015flemleri bir \u201ccarry trade\u201d (faiz fark\u0131ndan getiri elde etmeye dayal\u0131 strateji) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha y\u00fcksek faizi ta\u015f\u0131yarak getiri elde edilebilir. Parite g\u00f6rece yatay kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece bu strateji pozitif getiri \u00fcretebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ate\u015fkesle risk alg\u0131s\u0131 de\u011fi\u015firken ING, NBP\u2019nin faizi %3,75\u2019te uzun s\u00fcre sabitlemesini bekliyor. Enflasyon tolerans band\u0131nda; EUR\/PLN jeopoliti\u011fe duyarl\u0131, oynakl\u0131k artabilir; straddle\/carry trade \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44235","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44235","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44235"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44235\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44235"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44235"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44235"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}