ABD Dolar\u0131, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 98,50\u2019den toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131 ve 99,00 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde tutundu. Piyasalar\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019da ate\u015fkese ili\u015fkin \u015f\u00fcphelere tepki vermesiyle dolara talep artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkes duyurusunun ard\u0131ndan \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer, L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki bir \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 takiben H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatt\u0131. ABD ve \u0130srail, L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n anla\u015fman\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken Tahran, \u00fc\u00e7 temel maddede ihlal oldu\u011funu bildirdi ve yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri sorgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcre\u00e7 devam ediyor. Washington ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Pakistan\u2019da do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in heyet g\u00f6ndermesi bekleniyor. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n uymamas\u0131 halinde daha fazla \u201cad\u0131m\u201d at\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) Mart toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, dengeli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Faiz indirimleri h\u00e2l\u00e2 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken baz\u0131 yetkililer, Eyl\u00fcl 2024\u2019te ba\u015flayan gev\u015feme s\u00fcrecinden (faizlerin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmesi) bu yana ilk kez yeniden s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ya da para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma) ihtimalini de g\u00fcndeme getirdi.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD PCE Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinden biri) \u015eubat ay\u0131nda fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret etmesi bekleniyor. Odak Mart T\u00dcFE\u2019de (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi): man\u015fet enflasyonun (genel oran) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 ile yakla\u015f\u0131k iki y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fckse\u011fine \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) ise \u015eubat\u2019taki %2,5\u2019ten %2,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
9 Nisan 09:05 GMT\u2019de yap\u0131lan bir d\u00fczeltmede, gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn A\u011fustos 2024\u2019te de\u011fil Eyl\u00fcl 2024\u2019te ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 netle\u015ftirildi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019daki ate\u015fkesin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131) keskin bir art\u0131\u015f beklenebilir. 2025\u2019teki Karadeniz krizinde VIX\u2019in (piyasa \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d; beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde 35\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabildi\u011fini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. VIX call opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ya da SPX gibi ana endekslerde \u201cparada\u201d straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede, ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak; sert hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler) belirsizlikten yararlanman\u0131n do\u011frudan yollar\u0131 aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir ge\u00e7it. D\u00fcnya petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin (ham petrol ve benzeri petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri) yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019i buradan ge\u00e7iyor. Bu, 2025 sonundaki arz \u015fokunu (arz\u0131n aniden d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle fiyatlar\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131) hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri (ileride teslim i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyat\u0131 belirlenen petrol s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) tek seansta %15\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. M\u00fczakerelerin bozulma ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131, ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde call opsiyonu ya da enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon; bir sekt\u00f6r sepetini takip eder) al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, hem g\u00fcvenli liman talebinden (risk art\u0131nca daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) hem de Fed\u2019in daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) bir \u00e7izgiye kayma ihtimalinden destek buluyor. Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY; dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 99\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olabilir; Pakistan\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 halinde 2025\u2019teki k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015fesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen 104 seviyesinin yeniden test edilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. USD vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan k\u00e2r hedefleyen i\u015flem) veya enerji ithalat\u0131 y\u00fcksek para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 call opsiyonlar\u0131 daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki Mart T\u00dcFE verisi, i\u00e7eride en \u00f6nemli tetikleyici. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc sava\u015f\u0131n enflasyona etkisine dair ilk resmi okuma olacak. Man\u015fette %3,3\u2019l\u00fck oran, Fed\u2019i daha sert bir duru\u015fa itebilir; 2025 boyunca m\u00fccadele edilen enflasyonun tam olarak bitmedi\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerini geciktirmesi veya geri \u00e7evirmesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131, TLT gibi Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almay\u0131 bir \u201ckorunma\u201d (hedge; olumsuz harekete kar\u015f\u0131 zarar s\u0131n\u0131rlama) arac\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik risk ile inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonun birle\u015fimi, hisse senetleri i\u00e7in zor bir tablo yarat\u0131yor. Piyasa, 2025 sonbahar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen %10\u2019luk d\u00fczeltmeye (endeksin zirveden gerilemesi) benzer bask\u0131larla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in S&P 500 veya Nasdaq 100 \u00fczerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131 savunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 bir strateji olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar, \u0130ran ate\u015fkesi \u015f\u00fcpheleri ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn kapanmas\u0131yla g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle 99 \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutundu. Fed tutanaklar\u0131 \u015fahin, T\u00dcFE\/PCE kritik. Oynakl\u0131k artabilir; petrol, endeks ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44234","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44234","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44234"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44234\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44234"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44234"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44234"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}