Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde yatay seyretti. \u00dc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n zirvesinden geriledikten sonra 4.700 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutundu. ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesine y\u00f6nelik \u015f\u00fcpheler ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi ve alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha az, faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n) duru\u015fu dolar\u0131n daha fazla g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail, L\u00fcbnan genelinde geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131. Beyaz Saray ise L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n iki haftal\u0131k ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi kapsam\u0131na girmedi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bunun ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan sevkiyat\u0131 durdurdu ve L\u00fcbnan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar s\u00fcrerse ate\u015fkesten \u00e7ekilmekle tehdit etti. Bu geli\u015fmeler dolar\u0131 desteklerken alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131.<\/p>\n
17\u201318 Mart tarihli FOMC (Fed\u2019in faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan komitesi) toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, yetkililerin faiz indiriminde acele etmedi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Gerek\u00e7e olarak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) yukar\u0131 itme riskleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar 2026 sonuna kadar bir faiz indirimi ve 2027\u2019de bir faiz indirimi daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc korudu. Bu da dolar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k bir ay\u0131n dip seviyesinden toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131 ve alt\u0131n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD PCE Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ni (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi t\u00fcketim enflasyonu g\u00f6stergesi) ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc gelecek ABD T\u00dcFE (CPI, t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisini bekledi. Grafiklerde alt\u0131n, 4 saatlik 200 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (basit hareketli ortalama; fiyat\u0131n ortalama y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterir) ve Mart d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn %50 geri al\u0131m seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. MACD (momentum\/trend g\u00f6stergesi) negatif, RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; 50 civar\u0131 n\u00f6tr) 52 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Destek seviyeleri 4.604 dolar (%38,2), ard\u0131ndan 4.412 dolar (%23,6) ve 4.102 dolar. Diren\u00e7 4.758 dolar (%50), ard\u0131ndan 4.895\u20134.914 band\u0131 ve 5.000 dolar.<\/p>\n
K\u0131r\u0131lgan ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi ile Fed\u2019in g\u00fcvercin tonu aras\u0131ndaki gerilim, alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) art\u0131r\u0131yor. CBOE Alt\u0131n Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (GVZ) 22,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatmas\u0131 Brent vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 (gelecekte teslim i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan standart i\u015flem) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu tablo, net bir y\u00f6n yerine sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kritik ABD PCE ve T\u00dcFE verileri yakla\u015f\u0131rken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir harekete yarayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. 2025 sonlar\u0131nda beklenenden y\u00fcksek gelen bir T\u00dcFE verisinin y\u00fckseli\u015fi durdurdu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ge\u00e7en ay T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,1 ile biraz y\u00fcksek gelmesi piyasadaki hassasiyeti art\u0131rd\u0131. XAU\/USD\u2019de 4.700 dolar \u00e7evresindeki s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmadan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ihtimali i\u00e7in straddle veya strangle (opsiyonlarda y\u00f6n se\u00e7meden dalgalanmaya oynayan iki bacakl\u0131 stratejiler) almak daha dengeli bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n
Halihaz\u0131rda uzun (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyonu olanlar i\u00e7in 4.758 dolar direncinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nmas\u0131 risk olu\u015fturuyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc enflasyon verisi ya da L\u00fcbnan\u2019da askeri gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131, 4.604 dolar deste\u011fine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunma sa\u011flar. B\u00f6ylece y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 korunurken, jeopolitik risk artarsa zarar s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in bir faiz indirimi sinyali alt\u0131n i\u00e7in taban olu\u015fturuyor ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (piyasalar\u0131n gelecekteki Fed faizini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kontratlar) Aral\u0131k 2026 faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en ayki %70\u2019ten %45\u2019e geriledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu nedenle beklenenden zay\u0131f enflasyon verisi h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yeniden fiyatlamaya yol a\u00e7abilir ve alt\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Temkinli iyimser yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 4.900 dolar civar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru hareketi hedeflemek i\u00e7in bull call spread (al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti azaltan strateji) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; b\u00f6ylece ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik: XAU\/USD 4.700 \u00fcst\u00fcnde yatay. Ate\u015fkes \u015f\u00fcpheleri dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken, Fed\u2019in g\u00fcvercin tonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. PCE-T\u00dcFE ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44233","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44233"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44233\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44233"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44233"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44233"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}