Dow Jones vadeli i\u015flemleri, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde %0,36 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 47.950 seviyesine geriledi. S&P 500 ve Nasdaq 100 vadeli i\u015flemleri de s\u0131ras\u0131yla %0,38 ve %0,37 d\u00fc\u015ferek yakla\u015f\u0131k 6.800 ve 25.000 seviyelerine indi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 10 maddelik \u00f6nerisindeki \u00fc\u00e7 maddeyi ihlal etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fine ve yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u201cmakul olmayan\u201d diye nitelendirdi\u011fine dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flad\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance ise bu hafta sonu \u0130ran\u2019la do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in ABD heyetine \u0130slamabad\u2019da liderlik ederken, bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmaya ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ikinci ay\u0131na girdi; bu durum enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerek enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) riskini art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu da k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz ve likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131) daha uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 tutabilece\u011fi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) Mart toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, bankan\u0131n verileri izleyip bekleme yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve risklerin daha dengeli hale geldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Mart ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI\/T\u00dcFE: t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) verisini izlemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran medyas\u0131, L\u00fcbnan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan tanker ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin duraksad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberler verirken, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 arz endi\u015feleriyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, iki haftal\u0131k ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi \u00fczerinde uzla\u015fma sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Dow Jones %2,85, S&P 500 %2,51 y\u00fckseldi; Nasdaq 100 ise %2,8 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130yimserlikten k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fe h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, piyasalar\u0131n jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klara (sava\u015f, yapt\u0131r\u0131m, diplomasi gibi siyaset kaynakl\u0131 haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanmas\u0131) artmas\u0131 beklenebilir; bu nedenle VIX vadeli i\u015flemleri veya S&P 500 \u00fczerine opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden \u201coynakl\u0131k uzun\u201d (oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131na oynayan) pozisyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Benzer bir tablo 2025\u2019te de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f; ilk \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma haberlerinde VIX endeksi (piyasan\u0131n beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede 10\u2019lu seviyelerden 25\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n d\u00fcn ate\u015fkes haberine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tepki vermesinin ard\u0131ndan, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc geri \u00e7ekilme olumsuz geli\u015fmelere kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130slamabad\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: zarar riskini azaltma) ya da daha riskli bir strateji olarak, Dow ve Nasdaq 100 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. K\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (ham petrol ve benzeri \u00fcr\u00fcnler) %20\u2019den fazlas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131 halinde sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riski y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
Enerji piyasas\u0131nda yeniden artan arz endi\u015feleri do\u011frudan f\u0131rsat sunuyor; Brent petrol zaten varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolara yeniden yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. M\u00fczakerelerin bozulmas\u0131 halinde, 2025 sonundaki benzer fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yak\u0131n bir hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011finden, petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri veya b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji ETF\u2019leri (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fonlar) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu i\u015flem, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 genel piyasa riskine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir koruma i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, faizlerin \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc artan enerji maliyetleri enflasyonu yukar\u0131 iter. \u015eubat ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verisi enflasyonun %3,5 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Mart T\u00dcFE\u2019nin beklentiden s\u0131cak (tahminlerin \u00fczerinde) gelmesi, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine ili\u015fkin beklentileri daha ileri tarihe itebilir. Buna, yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz indirimi olmayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon alan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yakla\u015f\u0131labilir; piyasan\u0131n Temmuz indirimi fiyatlamas\u0131 bu ay %70\u2019ten %50\u2019nin alt\u0131na geriledi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok geli\u015fme: \u0130ran-ABD gerilimi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskiyle Wall Street vadeleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte; enerji enflasyonu besliyor, Fed \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201dde. G\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE\u2019de; VIX\/opsiyonlarla korunma, petrolde y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44231","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44231"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44231\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}