BNY stratejisti Geoff Yu, EUR pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesindeki \u201cDolar\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: kur riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in ters y\u00f6nde pozisyon alma)\u201d i\u015fleminden, art\u0131k toplamda net eksik ta\u015f\u0131nan (underheld: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n normalden daha az Euro tutmas\u0131) bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Yu\u2019ya g\u00f6re, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki haftada ate\u015fkes s\u00fcrerse, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131ndaki para ak\u0131mlar\u0131 (FX flows: farkl\u0131 para birimlerine giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar) \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131\u201d hareketlerin ard\u0131ndan yeniden ortalamalara yakla\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n
Yu, \u00f6demeler dengesi (balance of payments: bir \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f ticaret ve sermaye hareketleri toplam\u0131) bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131ndaki geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimlerinden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flara ve durgunlukla y\u00fcksek enflasyonun birlikte g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi (stagflation) endi\u015fesiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke para birimlerinden uzakla\u015fmaya dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n (policy tightening: faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi) daha m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011fu enerji ve emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 (commodity-linked: fiyat\u0131 petrol\/metal gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnlere duyarl\u0131) para birimlerinin destek g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Yu, enerji maliyetlerinin Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde stagflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Norve\u00e7\u2019te d\u0131\u015f ticaret ko\u015fullar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir iyile\u015fme (terms-of-trade shock: ihracat fiyatlar\u0131 ithalata g\u00f6re daha \u00e7ok art\u0131nca \u00fclke gelirlerinin y\u00fckselmesi) bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n (Norve\u00e7 Merkez Bankas\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceden i\u015faret etti\u011fini (pre-committed: piyasay\u0131 \u00f6nceden y\u00f6nlendirme) not ediyor ve Avrupa\u2019da bunu bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yapan tek geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n Norges Bank oldu\u011funu vurguluyor.<\/p>\n
Yu, \u00f6nceki \u201cDolar\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 korunma\u201d temas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesinin (unwind: pozisyonlar\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131) art\u0131k tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Euro\u2019nun toplamda net eksik ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Bunu, faiz beklentileri normalde daha fazla korunmay\u0131 te\u015fvik edecek y\u00f6nde ilerlese de, korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 vadeli Euro al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n (forward EUR buying: belirli bir tarihte kurdan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) azalmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Norve\u00e7 i\u00e7in Yu, enerji fiyatlar\u0131 zirve yaparsa (peak: y\u00fckseli\u015fin durmas\u0131) NOK\u2019taki (Norve\u00e7 Kronu) g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin duraklayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Petrol ve gaz gelirleri kamu finansman\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layacak d\u00fczeye gelirse, Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n yeniden d\u00f6viz al\u0131mlar\u0131na (FX purchases: rezerv i\u00e7in yabanc\u0131 para al\u0131m\u0131) ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini ekliyor; buna ra\u011fmen NOK pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa para birimleri i\u00e7inde en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fclerden biri oldu\u011funu belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon (derivative: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, bu tablo EUR\/USD\u2019de kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyenin \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (out-of-the-money call: \u015fu an k\u00e2rda olmayan al\u0131m hakk\u0131) olas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanma (snap-back rally: sert geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f) i\u00e7in g\u00f6rece cazip fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Euro\u2019nun net eksik ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 nedeniyle, olumlu bir tetikleyici (catalyst: piyasay\u0131 hareketlendiren haber\/olay) k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n (short: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bahis) h\u0131zla kapanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu opsiyonlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyeti, Avrupa alg\u0131s\u0131 iyile\u015firse y\u00fcksek getiri\u2013s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kay\u0131p profili (asymmetric bet: kay\u0131p s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, kazan\u00e7 potansiyeli daha y\u00fcksek) sunar.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, uzun NOK pozisyonu (long: y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc) ta\u015f\u0131yanlar\u0131n riski azaltmas\u0131 i\u00e7in korunma yap\u0131lmas\u0131 veya NOK \u00fczerine sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131nmas\u0131 daha temkinli olabilir. Kalabal\u0131k pozisyonlanma (crowded positioning: \u00e7ok ki\u015finin ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde pozisyon almas\u0131), enerji taraf\u0131na olumsuz bir haberde sert d\u00fczeltmeye a\u00e7\u0131k hale getirir. Bu, son ralliden elde edilen kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 korurken, daha yava\u015f da olsa yukar\u0131 potansiyelde pozisyonu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmenin bir yolunu sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasada yeni hik\u00e2ye: EUR art\u0131k hedge de\u011fil, \u201cnet underheld\u201d. Ate\u015fkes s\u00fcrerse FX ak\u0131mlar\u0131 normalle\u015febilir. Emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 paralar destekli; NOK g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ama enerji zirvesinde soluklanabilir. EUR\/USD call\u2019lar cazip.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44228","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44228","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44228"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44228\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44228"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44228"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44228"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}