EUR\/GBP paritesi, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 0,8710 civar\u0131na hafif y\u00fckseldi. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Almanya Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP) verisine \u00e7evrildi. HICP, farkl\u0131 \u00fclkelerin enflasyonunu ayn\u0131 y\u00f6ntemle \u00f6l\u00e7en ortak t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksidir.<\/p>\n
Almanya sanayi \u00fcretimi (fabrika ve \u00fcretim tesislerinin toplam \u00fcretimi) \u015fubatta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 geriledi. Ocakta %0 olan veri (\u00f6nceki %-0,5 seviyesinden revize edildi) sonras\u0131 gelen bu sonu\u00e7, %0,9 art\u0131\u015f beklentisini kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda Almanya sanayi \u00fcretimi \u015fubatta %0 oldu. Bu, ocakta revize edilen %0,9 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc izledi.<\/p>\n
Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kesin g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde. Faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, euronun sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dengede kalmas\u0131na destek verdi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de Bank of England\u2019\u0131n (BoE – \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131) ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na dair beklentiler zay\u0131flad\u0131. BoE Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrew Bailey, piyasalar\u0131n \u201cfazla ileri gitti\u011fini\u201d ve mevcut duru\u015fun \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r (faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmeme)\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki havaya d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde EUR\/GBP i\u00e7in tablo farkl\u0131yd\u0131; parite 0,8700 \u00fczerindeydi. Bug\u00fcn \u00e7apraz kur (iki para biriminin dolara bakmadan birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) 0,8550\u2019ye daha yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Bu, o d\u00f6nemden bu yana merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131 beklentilerindeki belirgin de\u011fi\u015fimi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Euro\u2019yu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 i\u015flemleri (iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket edece\u011fi beklentisiyle yap\u0131lan pozisyonlar) son bir y\u0131lda belirgin \u015fekilde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eubat 2025\u2019teki zay\u0131f Almanya sanayi \u00fcretimi verisi, y\u0131l boyunca ve 2026\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131nan bir uyar\u0131 sinyali oldu. S\u00fcren sanayi zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,9 daralma, ECB\u2019nin \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faizi art\u0131rmaya e\u011filimli yakla\u015f\u0131m) zaman i\u00e7inde zay\u0131flatt\u0131. 2025\u2019te beklenen \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi; ECB daha \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d (faiz konusunda ne s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ne gev\u015femeye net y\u00f6nelme) bir \u00e7izgiye kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta, BoE\u2019nin 2025\u2019teki temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 isabetli \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyon beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fudu. 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u0130ngiltere T\u00dcFE (CPI – t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) %1,8\u2019e geriledi ve BoE\u2019nin ECB\u2019den \u00f6nce faiz indirim s\u00fcrecine (gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc) ba\u015flamas\u0131na neden oldu. Bu politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, son alt\u0131 ayda sterlinin euroya kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ana nedenlerinden biri.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu politika yak\u0131nsamas\u0131, EUR\/GBP\u2019nin bant i\u00e7inde hareket etme e\u011filimini (belirli bir aral\u0131kta gidip gelme) art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da \u201cvolatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d stratejilerini (kurun b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131\u00e7rama yapmayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla opsiyon primi toplama) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) %5,5 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede. 0,8450 ve 0,8650 seviyelerinde \u201cstrangle\u201d satmak (farkl\u0131 iki kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte satmak) parite sakin kal\u0131rsa getiri sa\u011flayabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, kur b\u00fcy\u00fck ve beklenmedik bir hareket yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece zaman ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e (opsiyonun vade yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla) kazan\u00e7 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019den gelecek enflasyon verileri, bu dengenin bozulup bozulmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in izlenmeli. Almanya HICP verisi, 2025\u2019te oldu\u011fu gibi yine kritik bir g\u00f6sterge. Her iki b\u00f6lgeden de enflasyonda s\u00fcrpriz bir y\u00fckseli\u015f, faiz beklentilerini yeniden canland\u0131rabilir ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k ortam\u0131n\u0131 zorlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/GBP 0,8710\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131; g\u00f6zler cuma Almanya HICP verisinde. Zay\u0131f Almanya \u00fcretimi ve ECB\/BoE faiz beklentileri pariteyi bantta tutuyor; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44225","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44225"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44225\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44225"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44225"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44225"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}