EUR\/USD, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda 1,1660\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde yatay seyretti. Parite, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,1721 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra geri \u00e7ekildi. Bu geri \u00e7ekilme, \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin gelmesiyle ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, bir ate\u015fkes \u00f6nerisinin ihlal edildi\u011fini bildirdi. ABD ve \u0130srail ise L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131n bu anla\u015fman\u0131n kapsam\u0131nda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u015fartlara uymamas\u0131 halinde harekete ge\u00e7ilebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Taraflar, Pakistan\u2019da do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in heyet g\u00f6ndereceklerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mart ay\u0131 Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) tutanaklar\u0131, daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz indirimine temkinli, gerekirse faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi \u00f6nceleyen) bir tona i\u015faret etti ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda toparlanmay\u0131 destekledi. Yetkililer, %2 enflasyon hedefine ula\u015fman\u0131n daha uzun s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Baz\u0131 \u00fcyeler, A\u011fustos 2024\u2019te ba\u015flayan faiz indirimlerinden bu yana ilk kez \u201cs\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya parasal ko\u015fullar\u0131 daha zorlay\u0131c\u0131 h\u00e2le getirme) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirdi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 sava\u015f riskinin enflasyona etkisine dair ipucu i\u00e7in per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ni ve cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ni (T\u00dcFE\/CPI) izleyecek. PCE, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n enflasyonu takip ederken yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi fiyat g\u00f6stergesidir; T\u00dcFE ise hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetlerin fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7er. Avrupa taraf\u0131nda Almanya\u2019da sanayi \u00fcretimi \u015fubatta gerilerken, ithalat ve ihracat tahminleri a\u015f\u0131nca d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 beklentiden daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 darald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde parite, \u00f6nceki \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn\u00fcn kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 korudu. 4 saatlik RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat hareketinin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en momentum g\u00f6stergesi) y\u00fckseli\u015f b\u00f6lgesinde kal\u0131rken, MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama\/Iraksama: trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) hafif pozitif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Diren\u00e7 1,1721\u20131,1740 band\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 1,1830 civar\u0131nda izleniyor. Destek ise 1,1630\u20131,1640 band\u0131nda ve 1,1505 seviyesinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fu, daha sonra petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131yla (h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmemesiyle) y\u0131l i\u00e7inde iki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Ancak enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 zamanla zay\u0131flad\u0131; \u015eubat 2026 \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisi %2,4 ile daha y\u00f6netilebilir bir seviyeye indi. \u00c7ekirdek PCE, oynak kalemler olan enerji ve g\u0131day\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rakarak daha kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon e\u011filimini g\u00f6stermeyi ama\u00e7lar. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, oda\u011f\u0131 yeniden faiz indirimlerinin ne zaman ba\u015flayabilece\u011fine \u00e7eviriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) ile belirgin bir \u201cayr\u0131\u015fma i\u015flemi\u201d (iki ekonomi\/merkez bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika fark\u0131ndan yararlanma stratejisi) f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. ECB, hizmet enflasyonunun g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131yla u\u011fra\u015f\u0131yor ve k\u0131sa vadede faiz indirimi plan\u0131 sinyali vermiyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ABD ve Almanya tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n daralaca\u011f\u0131na oynanabilir. Bu ama\u00e7la faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri (faize dayal\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; gelecekteki faiz seviyesine g\u00f6re fiyatlan\u0131r) kullan\u0131labilir. Bu pozisyon, Fed gev\u015femeye (faiz indirimine) y\u00f6nelirken ECB\u2019nin sabit kalmas\u0131 durumunda avantaj sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik gerilim ve \u015fahin Fed tutanaklar\u0131yla EUR\/USD 1,1660 \u00fcst\u00fcnde dengeleniyor. Piyasalar PCE ve T\u00dcFE\u2019ye odaklan\u0131rken teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; faiz ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, ECB sabit-Fed gev\u015feme senaryosunu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44223","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44223"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44223\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44223"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44223"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44223"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}