USD\/CAD, \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde yeniden y\u00fckselerek 1,3860 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda ate\u015fkes konusunda belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na yeniden y\u00f6nelmesiyle geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) Mart toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mland\u0131. Tutanaklar, Fed\u2019in \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 benimsedi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar genel olarak faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmemeyi destekledi; kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n neredeyse tamam\u0131 faizin sabit kalmas\u0131ndan yana olurken, bir\u00e7ok \u00fcye mevcut politikan\u0131n \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d seviyeye (ekonomiyi ne belirgin bi\u00e7imde h\u0131zland\u0131ran ne de yava\u015flatan d\u00fczey) yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselirse Kanada Dolar\u0131 (CAD) destek bulabilir ve bu da paritedeki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. ABD tipi ham petrol olan West Texas Intermediate (WTI), \u0130ran medyas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019a yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan tanker ge\u00e7i\u015finin durdu\u011funu bildirmesinin ard\u0131ndan 91,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer, son geli\u015fmelerin hen\u00fcz bir g\u00fcn bile dolmayan ate\u015fkesin \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 ihlal etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 10 maddelik \u00f6nerisindeki \u00fc\u00e7 maddeyi ihlal etti\u011fini belirterek kal\u0131c\u0131 bir anla\u015fma i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmenin \u201cmakul olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d ifade etti.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmaya ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Vance, bu hafta sonu \u0130ran\u2019la do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in \u0130slamabad\u2019a giden ABD heyetine ba\u015fkanl\u0131k ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda net bir y\u00f6n se\u00e7mek yerine \u201coynakl\u0131k\u201d (fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ve s\u0131k dalgalanmas\u0131) \u00fczerinden pozisyon almak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar, her iki y\u00f6nde de h\u0131zl\u0131 ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi zor hareketler yaratabiliyor. USD\/CAD \u00fczerinde \u201copsiyon\u201d almak (belirli bir tarihe kadar \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 sat\u0131n almak) bu t\u00fcr b\u00fcy\u00fck harekette y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin kazan\u00e7 f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma) veya \u201cstrangle\u201d (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma) stratejileri, fiyat\u0131n yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m yapmas\u0131 halinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n
\u201cPariteye yak\u0131n\u201d (at-the-money) USD\/CAD opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %6,8 ile yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yak\u0131n. 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen hareketler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bu seviye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile Fed\u2019in y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz politikas\u0131nda ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (birinin faiz art\u0131r\u0131p di\u011ferinin sabit tutmas\u0131\/indirmesi gibi) beklendi\u011fi i\u00e7in, sert hareketleri tetikleyebilecek bir zemin olu\u015fuyor. Piyasa bu riski fiyatlamadan opsiyonlar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesi g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca petrol piyasas\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc WTI ham petrol Kanada Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in temel belirleyicilerden biri. Petrol ile CAD aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc pozitif ili\u015fki (iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n genellikle ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi) izlenmeye de\u011fer. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k i\u015fareti, Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye dolayl\u0131 yoldan pozisyon almak i\u00e7in petrol \u201cvadeli i\u015flemleri\u201d (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) \u00fczerindeki \u201cal\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n\u201d (call; fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan hak) da alternatif bir ara\u00e7 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik belirsizlik USD\/CAD\u2019i 1,3860\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131: Fed \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d modunda. Petrol 91,50$\u2019da; y\u00fckseli\u015f CAD\u2019i destekleyip ralliyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k %6,8\u2014straddle\/strangle f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44212"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44212\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}