EUR\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 1,1655 civar\u0131na geriledi; Euro, ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bu hareket, iki haftal\u0131k ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi konusundaki belirsizli\u011fin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Reuters, L\u00fcbnan dahil Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da aral\u0131kl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer bunun 1 g\u00fcnden k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce ilan edilen ate\u015fkesi ihlal etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve ABD ile kal\u0131c\u0131 bir anla\u015fma i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmenin \u201cmakul olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d ifade etti.<\/p>\n
ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI: hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6dedi\u011fi mal ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) raporu Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Man\u015fet CPI\u2019\u0131n (g\u0131da ve enerji dahil genel enflasyon) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, %2,4\u2019ten artmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu art\u0131\u015f sava\u015f d\u00f6neminde petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesiyle ili\u015fkilendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) yetkilileri, Nisan\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu, ancak Haziran\u2019\u0131n daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasalarda \u015fu an Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde olas\u0131l\u0131k fiyatlan\u0131yor (fiyatlamak: piyasalarda beklentinin al\u0131m-sat\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131).<\/p>\n
Euro, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki 20 AB \u00fclkesinde kullan\u0131l\u0131yor ve 2022\u2019de k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz (FX: farkl\u0131 para birimlerinin al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa) i\u015flemlerinin %31\u2019ini olu\u015fturdu. G\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama d\u00f6viz i\u015flem hacmi 2,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi; EUR\/USD t\u00fcm i\u015flemlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unu olu\u015ftururken, ard\u0131ndan EUR\/JPY (%4), EUR\/GBP (%3) ve EUR\/AUD (%2) geldi.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u015fahin bir ECB (\u015fahin: enflasyonu kontrol i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya yatk\u0131n) ve yeni jeopolitik gerilimler e\u015fli\u011finde EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1650 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc izlendi. Bug\u00fcn 9 Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla tablo de\u011fi\u015fti ve parite 1,0820 civar\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde. Merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 (politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131: birinin s\u0131k\u0131, di\u011ferinin gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131 izlemesi) ana belirleyici haline gelerek Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ilk etkisinin \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck yo\u011funluklu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, g\u00fcvenli liman ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na (g\u00fcvenli liman: belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi para birimi\/varl\u0131k) zemin haz\u0131rlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Daha \u00f6nemlisi, ABD\u2019de enflasyon \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d kal\u0131yor (yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon: kolay gerilemeyen, inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon). Mart 2026\u2019n\u0131n son CPI verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,8\u2019i g\u00f6stererek ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimi sinyali vermesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu durum dolar\u0131 benzer para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisinin yava\u015flamas\u0131yla ECB\u2019nin 2025\u2019teki \u015fahin duru\u015fu belirgin bi\u00e7imde yumu\u015fad\u0131. Son veriler, Almanya imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n (PMI: sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder) alt\u0131 ayd\u0131r darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Mart ay\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP enflasyonu (HICP: Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici enflasyonu g\u00f6stergesi) %2,2\u2019ye gerileyerek ABD\u2019ye k\u0131yasla hedefe daha \u00e7ok yakla\u015ft\u0131. Piyasalarda bu y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde ECB faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fuluyor (faiz indirimi: politika faizinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi).<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu ortam EUR\/USD\u2019de zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in 1,0700 veya 1,0650 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak (put opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinde kullan\u0131l\u0131r; kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131\/strike: opsiyonda sabitlenen fiyat) daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (tan\u0131ml\u0131 risk: kayb\u0131n \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131) pozisyon alma yolu sunuyor. \u0130ma edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) orta seviyede; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131n olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re makul fiyatl\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in temel risk, merkez bankalar\u0131ndan ani bir s\u00f6ylem de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi (rhetoric: y\u00f6nlendirme\/mesaj) ya da beklenenden zay\u0131f bir ABD istihdam verisi. Bu nedenle a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls: ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) verisi ve ECB\u2019nin bir sonraki politika metni yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; paritenin mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini de\u011fi\u015ftirebilecek en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tetikleyiciler bunlar.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD\u2019de alarm zilleri: Asya\u2019da 1,1655\u2019e geri \u00e7ekilen pariteyi jeopolitik belirsizlik ve Fed-ECB politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. ABD\u2019de yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon dolar\u0131 desteklerken, ECB\u2019de indirim beklentisi euroyu zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44209","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44209"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44209\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44209"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44209"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44209"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}