Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya erken i\u015flemlerinde 4.705 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Seans\u0131n erken b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde 4.720 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fler kaydedilmi\u015fti. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda iki haftal\u0131k ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkes a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasalar\u0131n tepkisiyle fiyatlar hafif geriledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131 halinde \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik bombard\u0131man ve sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 iki hafta s\u00fcreyle durdurmay\u0131 kabul etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. B\u00f6lgede \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar s\u00fcrerken (L\u00fcbnan\u2019da \u0130srail-Hizbullah \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 dahil), \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer bunun ate\u015fkes \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 ihlal etti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, son haftalarda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselterek enflasyonu (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) art\u0131rabilece\u011fi ve faiz indirimi alan\u0131n\u0131 daraltabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini fiyatlad\u0131. Alt\u0131n genelde jeopolitik belirsizlikte \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak talep g\u00f6r\u00fcr; ancak faiz veya kupon geliri olmayan (d\u00fczenli getiri \u00fcretmeyen) bir varl\u0131kt\u0131r. Bu nedenle faizler y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda talep zay\u0131flayabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlanan ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131na g\u00f6re, yetkililer Mart toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 ve g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifelerinin (ithalata uygulanan vergi) yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi beklemeye devam etti. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar, enflasyon Fed hedefinin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in \u201c\u00e7evik\u201d (veriye g\u00f6re h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirebilen) kalmalar\u0131 gerekti\u011fini, istihdam\u0131n (i\u015fe al\u0131m\u0131n) ise son bir y\u0131lda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi; bu, kay\u0131tlar\u0131n tutulmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri en y\u00fcksek y\u0131ll\u0131k al\u0131m oldu. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi, \u00c7in, Hindistan ve T\u00fcrkiye dahil geli\u015fen ekonomilerin rezervlerini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla tablo de\u011fi\u015fiyor; son veriler enflasyonun sonunda so\u011fumaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Mart 2026 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI: t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyatlar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi) verisi %3,1\u2019e gerileyerek bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimini yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
Para politikas\u0131 (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131) beklentisindeki bu de\u011fi\u015fim, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in temel bir itici g\u00fc\u00e7. CME FedWatch Tool (piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131ndan olas\u0131 Fed faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge), Eyl\u00fcl 2026 FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131na (Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurulun toplant\u0131s\u0131) kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 g\u00f6steriyor. Faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n, faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7lendik\u00e7e daha cazip hale gelir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (dayana\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131k olan finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, alt\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Aral\u0131k 2026 vadeli 5.000 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call option: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, Fed\u2019in gev\u015femesiyle (faiz indirimleri) gelebilecek olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanman\u0131n bir yolu. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, olas\u0131 kazanc\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcrken ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 riskini \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon bedeli) s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Bu olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, merkez bankalar\u0131ndan gelen kesintisiz talep de destekliyor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek verilerine g\u00f6re, k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131 rezervlerine 290 ton daha ekledi. S\u00fcregelen bu al\u0131mlar, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturur ve b\u00fcy\u00fck kurumsal oyuncular\u0131n (merkez bankalar\u0131 gibi) g\u00fcvenini g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n
Ana e\u011filim yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, jeopolitik gerilimler s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. Bu nedenle bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019i (bull call spread: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p, daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) gibi yap\u0131land\u0131rmalar etkili olabilir. Bu strateji, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ve risk s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 netle\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131n 4.705 dolarda; ABD-\u0130ran ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkesiyle geri \u00e7ekildi. Fed tutanaklar\u0131 indirim beklentisini koruyor, enflasyon so\u011fuyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc taban. Faiz indirimiyle 5.000$ call ve bull spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44206","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44206","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44206"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44206\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44206"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44206"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44206"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}