USD\/JPY \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,66 geriledi; 160,00\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyelerden 158,50 civar\u0131na indi. 160,00 b\u00f6lgesi, Tokyo\u2019nun Temmuz 2024\u2019teki m\u00fcdahale (kur piyasas\u0131na resmi sat\u0131\u015f\/al\u0131m) s\u00fcrecinden bu yana bir kez test edildi. Hareket daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck zirveler olu\u015fturdu; fiyat Asya seans\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131na girerken 15 dakikal\u0131k grafikte 200 periyotluk EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama: son verilere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) hemen alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ABD\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes haberi ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7may\u0131 kabul etmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Bu geli\u015fme, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk art\u0131nca tercih edilen varl\u0131klar) talebini azaltt\u0131. Mart boyunca ABD Dolar\u0131 ve ham petrol\u00fc destekleyen bu talebin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 Yen\u2019in toparlanmas\u0131na yard\u0131m etti.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkes h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirsiz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc taraflar 10 maddelik ana \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi imzalam\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Piyasa bu iki haftay\u0131 tam bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmden \u00e7ok \u201cs\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u201d olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da Cuma\u2019ya kadar veri takvimi sakin. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) 28 Nisan\u2019da faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor; piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131nda olas\u0131l\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %70. ABD taraf\u0131nda Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7ekirdek PCE (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi, g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) ve 4. \u00e7eyrek GSYH (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) verileri var. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise Mart T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi: hanehalk\u0131 enflasyonu), Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni ve enflasyon beklentileri a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
15 dakikal\u0131k grafikte USD\/JPY 158,57\u2019deydi; 200 periyotluk EMA 158,92 seviyesinde. Stokastik RSI (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6steren momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 14\u2019e yak\u0131nd\u0131. Diren\u00e7 158,92 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Japonya taraf\u0131nda, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f olsa bile 28 Nisan\u2019daki BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olmak gerekir. BoJ 2024\u2019te 17 y\u0131l sonra ilk kez faiz art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, banka \u201cileri y\u00f6nlendirmede\u201d (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n gelecekteki politika mesaj\u0131) \u00e7ok temkinli kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in yen zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Benzer bir \u201chaberi sat\u201d (beklenti al\u0131n\u0131p ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme sonras\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f) tepkisi ihtimali var; bu da toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi yen taraf\u0131nda tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almay\u0131 riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k, ate\u015fkesin bozulma riskini y\u00fcksek tutuyor; bu durumda parite 160,00\u2019e do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7rama yapabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cvade d\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonu (mevcut fiyattan daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyon; daha ucuz olur) al\u0131narak daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle koruma yap\u0131labilir. B\u00f6ylece ABD dolar\u0131na yeniden \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebi gelirse, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 do\u011far.<\/p>\n
Son olarak 160,00 seviyesi, Temmuz 2024\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen resmi m\u00fcdahale riski nedeniyle kritik e\u015fik olmaya devam ediyor. Japonya 2022\u2019de de yeni savunmak i\u00e7in piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etmi\u015fti. 160,00 \u00fczerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ataklar\u0131n resmi tepkiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek; bu nedenle \u015fu a\u015famada paritede \u201ctavan\u201d g\u00f6revi g\u00f6ren ana seviye olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar\/yen 160\u2019tan 158,5\u2019e sert indi: \u0130ran ate\u015fkesi g\u00fcvenli liman talebini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. G\u00f6zler BoJ\u2019un 28 Nisan faizinde ve ABD PCE\/T\u00dcFE\u2019de; 160 m\u00fcdahale e\u015fi\u011fi kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44203","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44203","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44203"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44203\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44203"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44203"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44203"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}