AUD\/JPY, \u00c7ar\u015famba Asya i\u015flemlerinde 111,80 civar\u0131nda seyretti; pozitif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc korurken 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcssel hareketli ortalama: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vererek trendi izleyen ortalama) 107,50 civar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunuyor. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, RSI\u2019nin (G\u00f6receli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131\/g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 50\u2019li seviyelerin \u00fcst\u00fcnde kalmas\u0131yla destekleniyor. \u0130lk destek 111,00; yukar\u0131da 112,50 civar\u0131 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi.<\/p>\n
Hareket, Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla Yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131yla geldi. Donald Trump, \u0130ran H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7arsa iki hafta boyunca \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik bombard\u0131man ve sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ask\u0131ya almay\u0131 kabul etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Seyed Abbas Araghchi, iki hafta boyunca \u0130ran Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetleri ile koordinasyon yoluyla bo\u011fazdan g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015fin \u201cm\u00fcmk\u00fcn olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d, ancak teknik s\u0131n\u0131rlara ba\u011fl\u0131 kal\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcvenli liman (piyasa stresi art\u0131nca talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) talebinin azalmas\u0131 Yen\u2019i bask\u0131lad\u0131. Ancak Japonya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi (kurda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in resmi d\u00f6viz i\u015flemleri) Yen\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcst d\u00fczey kur yetkilisi Atsushi Mimura, spek\u00fclatif (k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat hareketi beklentisiyle yap\u0131lan) hamlelerin s\u00fcrmesi halinde \u201ckararl\u0131\u201d ad\u0131mlar at\u0131labilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta fiyat, Bollinger Bantlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (hareketli ortalama etraf\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re geni\u015fleyip daralan bantlar) \u00fcst yar\u0131s\u0131nda kal\u0131yor; bantlar h\u00e2l\u00e2 geni\u015f. 111,00 alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m 110,00\u2019a, ard\u0131ndan alt banda yak\u0131n 109,00\u2019a alan a\u00e7abilir. Diren\u00e7ler 112,61 ve 113,15.<\/p>\n
Yen\u2019in y\u00f6n\u00fc; Japonya ekonomisi, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) politikas\u0131, Japonya\u2013ABD tahvil getirisi fark\u0131 (\u00f6zellikle 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz fark\u0131) ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131yla \u015fekilleniyor. BoJ\u2019nin 2013\u20132024 d\u00f6nemindeki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek politikas\u0131 Yen\u2019i zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; 2024\u2019te bu duru\u015ftan k\u0131smen uzakla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 daraltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak temkinli olmak gerekiyor; hareket k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir jeopolitik uzla\u015f\u0131ya dayan\u0131yor. 112,50 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011fu fiyat) ve vadesi nisan sonu ya da may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131 olan k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyele kat\u0131l\u0131rken azami zarar\u0131 ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlar. 1 ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) %12,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu da belirsizli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor ve \u201criski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131\u201d stratejileri daha uygun k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japon yetkililerin Yen\u2019i desteklemek i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. 2022 sonunda USD\/JPY 150\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n sert ad\u0131m atmas\u0131, h\u0131zl\u0131 kur zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7ebileceklerini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Mart 2026 ulusal T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin %2,4 gelmesi de BoJ\u2019nin kademeli \u043d\u043e\u0440\u043c\u0430\u043ble\u015fmesini destekliyor; bu da uzun vadede bu parite i\u00e7in bask\u0131 unsuru.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yanda Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n son d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi verileri, beklentiden daha dar bir fazla g\u00f6sterdi; bunda son \u00e7eyrekte demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gev\u015feme etkili oldu. Bu, yeni bir kataliz\u00f6r (fiyat\u0131 hareketlendiren yeni geli\u015fme) olmadan Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin 113,50\u2019nin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131nacak kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da \u00e7aprazda (cross: USD i\u00e7ermeyen d\u00f6viz paritesi) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu z\u0131t etkiler alt\u0131nda, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131ktan ve olas\u0131 yatay banttan (range: belirli destek\u2013diren\u00e7 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hareket) faydalanan stratejiler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. 113,00 \u00fczeri k\u0131sa bacakl\u0131 \u201cay\u0131 call spread\u201d satmak (bear call spread: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call sat\u0131p daha y\u00fcksekten call alarak yukar\u0131 riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) m\u00fcdahale endi\u015feleri ve Avustralya verilerindeki yava\u015flaman\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131na oynayan etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Bu strateji, mevcut iyimserlikten prim (opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 geliri) toplamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken s\u00fcrpriz bir sert y\u00fckseli\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/JPY 111,80\u2019de; risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz mesajlar\u0131yla destekli, RSI 50+ ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA \u00fcst\u00fcnde. 111,00 destek; 112,50-113,15 diren\u00e7. Japon m\u00fcdahalesi riski, %12,8 oynakl\u0131kla y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44180","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44180"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44180\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44180"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44180"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44180"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}